Stock Price Trends

Post Holdings Inc (POST)

Post Holdings, Inc. is a diversified consumer packaged goods company headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri, with a significant presence in both the U.S. and international markets. The company operates through multiple segments, including ready-to-eat cereals, refrigerated foods, and nutritional supplements, boasting a robust portfolio of well-known brands. With strategic acquisitions and a focus on innovation, Post Holdings is positioned to capture growth opportunities in the evolving consumer landscape while maintaining a commitment to operational efficiency and sustainability.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.01% per annum.
  • POST price at the close of October 20, 2025 was $106.64 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.75% per annum.
  • POST price at the close of October 20, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of POST price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 2, 2024
End date: October 20, 2025

a = 4.9841

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0292

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.01%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0292) – 1
= 12.38%

August 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y950)
= Exp(a + b × X950 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,381 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9841 + -0.0002 × 1,381 + 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(4.8080)
= $122.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y950)
= Exp(a + b × X950 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,381 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9841 + -0.0002 × 1,381 – 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(4.6913)
= $109.00

October 20, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9841 + -0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(4.7326)
= $113.59

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9841 + -0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(4.6160)
= $101.08

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.01% per annum.
  • POST price at the close of October 20, 2025 was $106.64 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 20, 2025
End date: October 20, 2025

a = 5.3371

b = -0.0004

s = 0.0221

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.75%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0221) – 1
= 9.23%

February 20, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,583 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3371 + -0.0004 × 1,583 + 2 × 0.0221)
= Exp(4.7897)
= $120.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,583 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3371 + -0.0004 × 1,583 – 2 × 0.0221)
= Exp(4.7014)
= $110.10

October 20, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3371 + -0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0221)
= Exp(4.6993)
= $109.86

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3371 + -0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0221)
= Exp(4.6110)
= $100.58

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.75% per annum.
  • POST price at the close of October 20, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.