Stock Price Trends

ConAgra Foods Inc (CAG)

Conagra Brands, Inc. (formerly ConAgra Foods) is an American consumer packaged goods holding company headquartered in Chicago, Illinois. Conagra makes and sells products under various brand names that are available in supermarkets, restaurants, and food service establishments.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.69% per annum.
  • CAG price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $24.34 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.55% per annum.
  • CAG price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CAG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 1, 2024
End date: March 5, 2025

a = 5.1163

b = -0.0011

s = 0.0341

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -32.69%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0341) – 1
= 14.59%

August 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,070)
= Exp(a + b × X1,070 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,554 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1163 + -0.0011 × 1,554 + 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(3.4987)
= $33.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,070)
= Exp(a + b × X1,070 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,554 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1163 + -0.0011 × 1,554 – 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(3.3625)
= $28.86

March 5, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1163 + -0.0011 × 1,770 + 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(3.2644)
= $26.17

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1163 + -0.0011 × 1,770 – 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(3.1282)
= $22.83

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.69% per annum.
  • CAG price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $24.34 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 11, 2024
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 3.9425

b = -0.0004

s = 0.0286

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.55%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0286) – 1
= 12.14%

November 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,656 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9425 + -0.0004 × 1,656 + 2 × 0.0286)
= Exp(3.3394)
= $28.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,141)
= Exp(a + b × X1,141 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,656 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9425 + -0.0004 × 1,656 – 2 × 0.0286)
= Exp(3.2248)
= $25.15

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9425 + -0.0004 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0286)
= Exp(3.2739)
= $26.42

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9425 + -0.0004 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0286)
= Exp(3.1594)
= $23.56

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.55% per annum.
  • CAG price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.