ConAgra Foods Inc (CAG)
Conagra Brands, Inc. (formerly ConAgra Foods) is an American consumer packaged goods holding company headquartered in Chicago, Illinois. Conagra makes and sells products under various brand names that are available in supermarkets, restaurants, and food service establishments.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.55% per annum.
- CAG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $29.53 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.40 (8.84%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.62% per annum.
- CAG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CAG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 27, 2022
End date: March 18, 2024
a = 4.4005
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0571
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0571) – 1
= 25.64%
October 27, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y821)
= Exp(a + b × X821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,189 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4005 + -0.0007 × 1,189 + 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(3.7242)
= $41.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y821)
= Exp(a + b × X821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,189 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4005 + -0.0007 × 1,189 – 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(3.4959)
= $32.98
March 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,697 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4005 + -0.0007 × 1,697 + 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(3.3864)
= $29.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,697 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4005 + -0.0007 × 1,697 – 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(3.1582)
= $23.53
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.55% per annum.
- CAG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $29.53 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.40 (8.84%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 5, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.7641
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0343
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 13.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0343) – 1
= 14.70%
September 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,034)
= Exp(a + b × X1,034 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,502 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7641 + 0.0003 × 1,502 + 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(3.3582)
= $28.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,034)
= Exp(a + b × X1,034 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,502 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7641 + 0.0003 × 1,502 – 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(3.2210)
= $25.05
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7641 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(3.4715)
= $32.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7641 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(3.3344)
= $28.06
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.62% per annum.
- CAG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.