Stock Price Trends

Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM)

Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. produces, grades, packs, markets and distributes shell eggs. The company is headquartered in Jackson, Mississippi.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 67.37% per annum.
  • CALM price at the close of September 30, 2025 was $94.10 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.65 (5.67%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 90.90% per annum.
  • CALM price at the close of September 30, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CALM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 20, 2023
End date: September 15, 2025

a = 2.2021

b = 0.0014

s = 0.0873

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 67.37%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0873) – 1
= 41.78%

June 20, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y682)
= Exp(a + b × X682 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 992 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2021 + 0.0014 × 992 + 2 × 0.0873)
= Exp(3.7764)
= $43.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y682)
= Exp(a + b × X682 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 992 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2021 + 0.0014 × 992 – 2 × 0.0873)
= Exp(3.4273)
= $30.79

September 15, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2021 + 0.0014 × 1,810 + 2 × 0.0873)
= Exp(4.9306)
= $138.47

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2021 + 0.0014 × 1,810 – 2 × 0.0873)
= Exp(4.5815)
= $97.66

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 67.37% per annum.
  • CALM price at the close of September 30, 2025 was $94.10 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.65 (5.67%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 27, 2025
End date: September 30, 2025

a = 16.5384

b = -0.0066

s = 0.0190

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0066) – 1
= -90.90%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0190) – 1
= 7.88%

August 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 + 2 × s)
= Exp(16.5384 + -0.0066 × 1,791 + 2 × 0.0190)
= Exp(4.8157)
= $123.43

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 – 2 × s)
= Exp(16.5384 + -0.0066 × 1,791 – 2 × 0.0190)
= Exp(4.7398)
= $114.41

September 30, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(16.5384 + -0.0066 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0190)
= Exp(4.5924)
= $98.73

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(16.5384 + -0.0066 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0190)
= Exp(4.5166)
= $91.52

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 90.90% per annum.
  • CALM price at the close of September 30, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.