Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM)
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. produces, grades, packs, markets and distributes shell eggs. The company is headquartered in Jackson, Mississippi.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.75% per annum.
- CALM price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $70.83 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.00 (1.44%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 235.64% per annum.
- CALM price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.08 (1.54%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CALM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 20, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 2.2509
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0391
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 46.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0391) – 1
= 16.95%
June 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y980)
= Exp(a + b × X980 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,422 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2509 + 0.0011 × 1,422 + 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(3.8236)
= $45.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y980)
= Exp(a + b × X980 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,422 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2509 + 0.0011 × 1,422 – 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(3.6670)
= $39.13
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2509 + 0.0011 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(4.2460)
= $69.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2509 + 0.0011 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(4.0894)
= $59.71
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.75% per annum.
- CALM price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $70.83 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.00 (1.44%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 7, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = -1.8450
b = 0.0033
s = 0.0195
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0033) – 1
= 235.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0195) – 1
= 8.10%
June 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,775 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.8450 + 0.0033 × 1,775 + 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(4.0824)
= $59.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,775 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.8450 + 0.0033 × 1,775 – 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(4.0045)
= $54.85
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.8450 + 0.0033 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(4.2450)
= $69.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.8450 + 0.0033 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(4.1671)
= $64.53
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 235.64% per annum.
- CALM price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.08 (1.54%).