Stock Price Trends

General Mills Inc (GIS)

General Mills, Inc., is an American multinational manufacturer and marketer of branded consumer foods sold through retail stores. It is headquartered in Golden Valley, Minnesota, a suburb of Minneapolis.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.83% per annum.
  • GIS price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $56.15 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 30.81% per annum.
  • GIS price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GIS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 5, 2022
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 4.5023

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0741

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.83%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0741) – 1
= 34.52%

August 5, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y571)
= Exp(a + b × X571 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 827 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5023 + -0.0002 × 827 + 2 × 0.0741)
= Exp(4.4657)
= $86.99

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y571)
= Exp(a + b × X571 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 827 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5023 + -0.0002 × 827 – 2 × 0.0741)
= Exp(4.1692)
= $64.66

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5023 + -0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0741)
= Exp(4.2427)
= $69.59

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5023 + -0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0741)
= Exp(3.9461)
= $51.74

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.83% per annum.
  • GIS price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $56.15 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 26, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 5.8622

b = -0.0010

s = 0.0310

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -30.81%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0310) – 1
= 13.20%

August 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,579 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8622 + -0.0010 × 1,579 + 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(4.3306)
= $75.99

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,579 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8622 + -0.0010 × 1,579 – 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(4.2066)
= $67.13

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8622 + -0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(4.0823)
= $59.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8622 + -0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(3.9583)
= $52.37

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 30.81% per annum.
  • GIS price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.