Stock Price Trends

General Mills Inc (GIS)

General Mills, Inc., is an American multinational manufacturer and marketer of branded consumer foods sold through retail stores. It is headquartered in Golden Valley, Minnesota, a suburb of Minneapolis.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.97% per annum.
  • GIS price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $70.70 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.80 (4.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.40% per annum.
  • GIS price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GIS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 27, 2022
End date: March 15, 2024

a = 5.1997

b = -0.0006

s = 0.0658

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.97%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0658) – 1
= 30.09%

October 27, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y873)
= Exp(a + b × X873 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,263 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1997 + -0.0006 × 1,263 + 2 × 0.0658)
= Exp(4.5604)
= $95.62

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y873)
= Exp(a + b × X873 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,263 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1997 + -0.0006 × 1,263 – 2 × 0.0658)
= Exp(4.2974)
= $73.51

March 15, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1997 + -0.0006 × 1,768 + 2 × 0.0658)
= Exp(4.2522)
= $70.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1997 + -0.0006 × 1,768 – 2 × 0.0658)
= Exp(3.9892)
= $54.01

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.97% per annum.
  • GIS price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $70.70 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.80 (4.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 22, 2023
End date: May 10, 2024

a = 3.3425

b = 0.0005

s = 0.0259

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 19.40%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0259) – 1
= 10.91%

September 22, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,099)
= Exp(a + b × X1,099 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,593 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3425 + 0.0005 × 1,593 + 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(4.1683)
= $64.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,099)
= Exp(a + b × X1,099 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,593 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3425 + 0.0005 × 1,593 – 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(4.0647)
= $58.25

May 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3425 + 0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(4.2805)
= $72.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3425 + 0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(4.1770)
= $65.17

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.40% per annum.
  • GIS price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.