General Mills Inc (GIS)
General Mills, Inc., is an American multinational manufacturer and marketer of branded consumer foods sold through retail stores. It is headquartered in Golden Valley, Minnesota, a suburb of Minneapolis.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.97% per annum.
- GIS price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $70.70 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.80 (4.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.40% per annum.
- GIS price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GIS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 27, 2022
End date: March 15, 2024
a = 5.1997
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0658
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0658) – 1
= 30.09%
October 27, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y873)
= Exp(a + b × X873 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,263 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1997 + -0.0006 × 1,263 + 2 × 0.0658)
= Exp(4.5604)
= $95.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y873)
= Exp(a + b × X873 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,263 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1997 + -0.0006 × 1,263 – 2 × 0.0658)
= Exp(4.2974)
= $73.51
March 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1997 + -0.0006 × 1,768 + 2 × 0.0658)
= Exp(4.2522)
= $70.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1997 + -0.0006 × 1,768 – 2 × 0.0658)
= Exp(3.9892)
= $54.01
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.97% per annum.
- GIS price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $70.70 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.80 (4.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 22, 2023
End date: May 10, 2024
a = 3.3425
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0259
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 19.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0259) – 1
= 10.91%
September 22, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,099)
= Exp(a + b × X1,099 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,593 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3425 + 0.0005 × 1,593 + 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(4.1683)
= $64.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,099)
= Exp(a + b × X1,099 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,593 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3425 + 0.0005 × 1,593 – 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(4.0647)
= $58.25
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3425 + 0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(4.2805)
= $72.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3425 + 0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(4.1770)
= $65.17
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.40% per annum.
- GIS price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.