McCormick & Company Incorporated (MKC)
McCormick & Company is an American multinational food company that manufactures, markets, and distributes spices, seasoning mixes, condiments, and other flavoring products to retail outlets, food manufacturers, and foodservice businesses.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.69% per annum.
- MKC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $74.77 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $15.87 (26.94%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 37.13% per annum.
- MKC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MKC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 10, 2021
End date: March 27, 2023
a = 5.1182
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0587
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0587) – 1
= 26.46%
December 10, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y600)
= Exp(a + b × X600 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 868 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1182 + -0.0006 × 868 + 2 × 0.0587)
= Exp(4.6843)
= $108.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y600)
= Exp(a + b × X600 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 868 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1182 + -0.0006 × 868 – 2 × 0.0587)
= Exp(4.4495)
= $85.59
March 27, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y923)
= Exp(a + b × X923 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,340 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1182 + -0.0006 × 1,340 + 2 × 0.0587)
= Exp(4.3845)
= $80.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y923)
= Exp(a + b × X923 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,340 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1182 + -0.0006 × 1,340 – 2 × 0.0587)
= Exp(4.1498)
= $63.42
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.69% per annum.
- MKC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $74.77 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $15.87 (26.94%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 5, 2023
End date: May 24, 2024
a = 2.7873
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0309
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 37.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0309) – 1
= 13.15%
October 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,056)
= Exp(a + b × X1,056 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,532 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7873 + 0.0009 × 1,532 + 2 × 0.0309)
= Exp(4.1744)
= $65.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,056)
= Exp(a + b × X1,056 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,532 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7873 + 0.0009 × 1,532 – 2 × 0.0309)
= Exp(4.0508)
= $57.44
May 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7873 + 0.0009 × 1,764 + 2 × 0.0309)
= Exp(4.3751)
= $79.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7873 + 0.0009 × 1,764 – 2 × 0.0309)
= Exp(4.2515)
= $70.21
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 37.13% per annum.
- MKC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.