Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ)
Mondelez International, Inc. is an American multinational confectionery, food, holding and beverage and snack food company based in Chicago, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.65% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of April 30, 2024 was $71.94 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.64 (5.33%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 961.68% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of April 30, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MDLZ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 23, 2024
End date: April 19, 2024
a = 6.6374
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0153
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0153) – 1
= 6.31%
January 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6374 + -0.0013 × 1,728 + 2 × 0.0153)
= Exp(4.3551)
= $77.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,728 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6374 + -0.0013 × 1,728 – 2 × 0.0153)
= Exp(4.2939)
= $73.25
April 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6374 + -0.0013 × 1,815 + 2 × 0.0153)
= Exp(4.2386)
= $69.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6374 + -0.0013 × 1,815 – 2 × 0.0153)
= Exp(4.1774)
= $65.20
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.65% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of April 30, 2024 was $71.94 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.64 (5.33%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 15, 2024
End date: April 30, 2024
a = -7.5305
b = 0.0065
s = 0.0100
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0065) – 1
= 961.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0100) – 1
= 4.07%
April 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.5305 + 0.0065 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0100)
= Exp(4.2110)
= $67.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.5305 + 0.0065 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0100)
= Exp(4.1711)
= $64.79
April 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.5305 + 0.0065 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0100)
= Exp(4.3080)
= $74.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.5305 + 0.0065 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0100)
= Exp(4.2682)
= $71.39
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 961.68% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of April 30, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.