Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc (FDP)
Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc. produces, markets and distributes fresh and fresh cut fruits and vegetables in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia and internationally. The company is headquartered in George Town, Cayman Islands.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.66% per annum.
- FDP price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $24.36 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.07 (14.41%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.78% per annum.
- FDP price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FDP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 31, 2023
End date: December 12, 2023
a = 4.2652
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0385
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0385) – 1
= 16.64%
January 31, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y884)
= Exp(a + b × X884 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,282 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2652 + -0.0007 × 1,282 + 2 × 0.0385)
= Exp(3.4398)
= $31.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y884)
= Exp(a + b × X884 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,282 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2652 + -0.0007 × 1,282 – 2 × 0.0385)
= Exp(3.2859)
= $26.73
December 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,597 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2652 + -0.0007 × 1,597 + 2 × 0.0385)
= Exp(3.2181)
= $24.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,597 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2652 + -0.0007 × 1,597 – 2 × 0.0385)
= Exp(3.0642)
= $21.42
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.66% per annum.
- FDP price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $24.36 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.07 (14.41%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 3, 2023
End date: June 6, 2024
a = 3.4634
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0398
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -5.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0398) – 1
= 17.23%
May 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y948)
= Exp(a + b × X948 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,374 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4634 + -0.0002 × 1,374 + 2 × 0.0398)
= Exp(3.3187)
= $27.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y948)
= Exp(a + b × X948 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,374 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4634 + -0.0002 × 1,374 – 2 × 0.0398)
= Exp(3.1597)
= $23.56
June 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4634 + -0.0002 × 1,774 + 2 × 0.0398)
= Exp(3.2535)
= $25.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4634 + -0.0002 × 1,774 – 2 × 0.0398)
= Exp(3.0944)
= $22.07
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.78% per annum.
- FDP price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.