Simply Good Foods Co (SMPL)
Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) is a leading consumer packaged food and beverage company specializing in nutritious snacks and meal replacements. Headquartered in Denver, Colorado, the company focuses on innovative product offerings that cater to health-conscious consumers, leveraging strong brand recognition and a diverse distribution network. With a commitment to quality and sustainability, Simply Good Foods continues to expand its market presence both in North America and internationally, positioning itself as a key player in the growing wellness-focused food sector.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 62.71% per annum.
- SMPL price at the close of February 13, 2026 was $15.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 98.86% per annum.
- SMPL price at the close of February 13, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SMPL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 9, 2025
End date: February 13, 2026
a = 7.7683
b = -0.0027
s = 0.0672
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0027) – 1
= -62.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0672) – 1
= 30.81%
April 9, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,042)
= Exp(a + b × X1,042 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,513 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7683 + -0.0027 × 1,513 + 2 × 0.0672)
= Exp(3.8136)
= $45.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,042)
= Exp(a + b × X1,042 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,513 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7683 + -0.0027 × 1,513 – 2 × 0.0672)
= Exp(3.5449)
= $34.64
February 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7683 + -0.0027 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0672)
= Exp(2.9758)
= $19.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7683 + -0.0027 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0672)
= Exp(2.7071)
= $14.99
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 62.71% per annum.
- SMPL price at the close of February 13, 2026 was $15.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 20, 2026
End date: February 13, 2026
a = 25.1168
b = -0.0123
s = 0.0147
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0123) – 1
= -98.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0147) – 1
= 6.04%
January 20, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(25.1168 + -0.0123 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0147)
= Exp(3.0842)
= $21.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(25.1168 + -0.0123 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0147)
= Exp(3.0255)
= $20.60
February 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(25.1168 + -0.0123 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0147)
= Exp(2.7898)
= $16.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(25.1168 + -0.0123 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0147)
= Exp(2.7311)
= $15.35
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 98.86% per annum.
- SMPL price at the close of February 13, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.