Simply Good Foods Co (SMPL)
Simply Good Foods Company is a consumer packaged food and beverage company in North America and internationally. The company is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.13% per annum.
- SMPL price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $33.77 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 30.83% per annum.
- SMPL price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SMPL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 21, 2021
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 3.6006
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0692
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0692) – 1
= 31.87%
April 21, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y436)
= Exp(a + b × X436 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 632 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6006 + 0.0000 × 632 + 2 × 0.0692)
= Exp(3.7367)
= $41.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y436)
= Exp(a + b × X436 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 632 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6006 + 0.0000 × 632 – 2 × 0.0692)
= Exp(3.4600)
= $31.82
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6006 + 0.0000 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0692)
= Exp(3.7323)
= $41.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6006 + 0.0000 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0692)
= Exp(3.4557)
= $31.68
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.13% per annum.
- SMPL price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $33.77 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 9, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 5.4026
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0214
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -30.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0214) – 1
= 8.93%
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,746 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4026 + -0.0010 × 1,746 + 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(3.6824)
= $39.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,746 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4026 + -0.0010 × 1,746 – 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(3.5968)
= $36.48
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4026 + -0.0010 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(3.6036)
= $36.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4026 + -0.0010 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0214)
= Exp(3.5181)
= $33.72
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 30.83% per annum.
- SMPL price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.