Freshpet Inc (FRPT)
Freshpet, Inc. manufactures and markets fresh natural cat and dog food and treats in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom. The company is headquartered in Secaucus, New Jersey.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.78% per annum.
- FRPT price at the close of July 11, 2025 was $68.39 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $67.15 (49.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 76.92% per annum.
- FRPT price at the close of July 11, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FRPT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 6, 2022
End date: February 19, 2025
a = 2.9832
b = 0.0012
s = 0.1445
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 55.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1445) – 1
= 78.25%
May 6, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y459)
= Exp(a + b × X459 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 662 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9832 + 0.0012 × 662 + 2 × 0.1445)
= Exp(4.0762)
= $58.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y459)
= Exp(a + b × X459 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 662 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9832 + 0.0012 × 662 – 2 × 0.1445)
= Exp(3.4981)
= $33.05
February 19, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,682 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9832 + 0.0012 × 1,682 + 2 × 0.1445)
= Exp(5.3148)
= $203.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,682 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9832 + 0.0012 × 1,682 – 2 × 0.1445)
= Exp(4.7368)
= $114.07
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.78% per annum.
- FRPT price at the close of July 11, 2025 was $68.39 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $67.15 (49.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 4, 2024
End date: July 11, 2025
a = 11.4814
b = -0.0040
s = 0.1227
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0040) – 1
= -76.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1227) – 1
= 63.39%
November 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,086)
= Exp(a + b × X1,086 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4814 + -0.0040 × 1,575 + 2 × 0.1227)
= Exp(5.4010)
= $221.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,086)
= Exp(a + b × X1,086 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4814 + -0.0040 × 1,575 – 2 × 0.1227)
= Exp(4.9100)
= $135.64
July 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4814 + -0.0040 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1227)
= Exp(4.4009)
= $81.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4814 + -0.0040 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1227)
= Exp(3.9099)
= $49.90
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 76.92% per annum.
- FRPT price at the close of July 11, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.