Freshpet Inc (FRPT)
Freshpet Inc. is a leader in the fresh pet food industry, specializing in the production and marketing of natural, refrigerated pet food for dogs and cats. With its headquarters in Secaucus, New Jersey, the company has established a strong presence in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, addressing the growing consumer demand for high-quality, nutritious pet products. Freshpet's innovative approach combines fresh ingredients with transparent sourcing practices, positioning the brand as a trusted choice among pet owners seeking healthier alternatives for their pets. As the market for premium pet food continues to expand, Freshpet is well-positioned to leverage its brand equity and distribution capabilities to capture new growth opportunities.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 64.11% per annum.
- FRPT price at the close of January 12, 2026 was $64.15 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.73 (15.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 132.85% per annum.
- FRPT price at the close of January 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FRPT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 23, 2024
End date: December 1, 2025
a = 8.8633
b = -0.0028
s = 0.1374
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0028) – 1
= -64.11%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1374) – 1
= 73.25%
August 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y908)
= Exp(a + b × X908 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,318 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8633 + -0.0028 × 1,318 + 2 × 0.1374)
= Exp(5.4382)
= $230.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y908)
= Exp(a + b × X908 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,318 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8633 + -0.0028 × 1,318 – 2 × 0.1374)
= Exp(4.8886)
= $132.77
December 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8633 + -0.0028 × 1,783 + 2 × 0.1374)
= Exp(4.1328)
= $62.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8633 + -0.0028 × 1,783 – 2 × 0.1374)
= Exp(3.5833)
= $35.99
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 64.11% per annum.
- FRPT price at the close of January 12, 2026 was $64.15 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.73 (15.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 18, 2025
End date: January 12, 2026
a = -0.0574
b = 0.0023
s = 0.0459
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0023) – 1
= 132.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0459) – 1
= 20.16%
September 18, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,175)
= Exp(a + b × X1,175 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0574 + 0.0023 × 1,709 + 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(3.9920)
= $54.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,175)
= Exp(a + b × X1,175 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0574 + 0.0023 × 1,709 – 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(3.8084)
= $45.08
January 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0574 + 0.0023 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(4.2606)
= $70.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0574 + 0.0023 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(4.0770)
= $58.97
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 132.85% per annum.
- FRPT price at the close of January 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.