John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc (JBSS)
John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. (JBSS) is a leading processor and distributor of tree nuts and peanuts in the United States, with a well-established reputation for quality and innovation in the snack food industry. Headquartered in Elgin, Illinois, the company has strategically positioned itself to capitalize on growing consumer demand for healthy snack options. Through its subsidiary, JBSS Ventures, LLC, the firm continues to expand its product offerings, leveraging a robust supply chain and dedicated marketing initiatives to enhance market share and drive profitability. With a focus on sustainability and responsible sourcing, JBSS is committed to delivering high-quality products while maintaining operational excellence.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.53% per annum.
- JBSS price at the close of December 9, 2025 was $72.80 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.56 (0.78%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.20% per annum.
- JBSS price at the close of December 9, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.28 (0.39%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of JBSS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 3, 2023
End date: November 20, 2025
a = 5.2608
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0842
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0842) – 1
= 40.06%
May 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y601)
= Exp(a + b × X601 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 874 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2608 + -0.0006 × 874 + 2 × 0.0842)
= Exp(4.8789)
= $131.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y601)
= Exp(a + b × X601 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 874 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2608 + -0.0006 × 874 – 2 × 0.0842)
= Exp(4.5420)
= $93.88
November 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2608 + -0.0006 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0842)
= Exp(4.2919)
= $73.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2608 + -0.0006 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0842)
= Exp(3.9551)
= $52.20
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.53% per annum.
- JBSS price at the close of December 9, 2025 was $72.80 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.56 (0.78%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 1, 2025
End date: December 9, 2025
a = 3.2001
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0406
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 22.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0406) – 1
= 17.64%
May 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,101)
= Exp(a + b × X1,101 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2001 + 0.0005 × 1,603 + 2 × 0.0406)
= Exp(4.1619)
= $64.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,101)
= Exp(a + b × X1,101 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2001 + 0.0005 × 1,603 – 2 × 0.0406)
= Exp(3.9994)
= $54.57
December 9, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2001 + 0.0005 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0406)
= Exp(4.2838)
= $72.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2001 + 0.0005 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0406)
= Exp(4.1213)
= $61.64
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.20% per annum.
- JBSS price at the close of December 9, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.28 (0.39%).