John B Sanfilippo & Son Inc (JBSS)
John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc., along with its subsidiary, JBSS Ventures, LLC, processes and distributes tree nuts and peanuts in the United States. The company is headquartered in Elgin, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.52% per annum.
- JBSS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $103.79 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $26.35 (34.03%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.06% per annum.
- JBSS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of JBSS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 3, 2023
End date: December 6, 2023
a = 6.2356
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0398
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -32.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0398) – 1
= 17.25%
May 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y948)
= Exp(a + b × X948 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,374 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2356 + -0.0011 × 1,374 + 2 × 0.0398)
= Exp(4.8345)
= $125.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y948)
= Exp(a + b × X948 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,374 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2356 + -0.0011 × 1,374 – 2 × 0.0398)
= Exp(4.6753)
= $107.27
December 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,098)
= Exp(a + b × X1,098 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,591 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2356 + -0.0011 × 1,591 + 2 × 0.0398)
= Exp(4.6006)
= $99.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,098)
= Exp(a + b × X1,098 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,591 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2356 + -0.0011 × 1,591 – 2 × 0.0398)
= Exp(4.4414)
= $84.90
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.52% per annum.
- JBSS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $103.79 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $26.35 (34.03%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 3, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 4.6019
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0376
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.06%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0376) – 1
= 16.21%
August 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,011)
= Exp(a + b × X1,011 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,466 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6019 + 0.0000 × 1,466 + 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(4.6746)
= $107.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,011)
= Exp(a + b × X1,011 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,466 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6019 + 0.0000 × 1,466 – 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(4.5244)
= $92.24
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6019 + 0.0000 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(4.6740)
= $107.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6019 + 0.0000 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(4.5238)
= $92.18
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.06% per annum.
- JBSS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.