Stock Price Trends

Pilgrims Pride Corp (PPC)

Pilgrim's Pride Corporation produces, processes, markets and distributes fresh, frozen and value-added chicken and pork products to retailers, distributors and food service operators in the United States, the United Kingdom, Mexico, France, Puerto Rico, the Countries Low, rest of Europe, Middle East, Asia and internationally. The company is headquartered in Greeley, Colorado.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 106.93% per annum.
  • PPC price at the close of April 16, 2024 was $35.57 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 319.34% per annum.
  • PPC price at the close of April 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PPC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 20, 2023
End date: April 16, 2024

a = -0.1025

b = 0.0020

s = 0.0401

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 106.93%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0401) – 1
= 17.40%

September 20, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,114)
= Exp(a + b × X1,114 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,617 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1025 + 0.0020 × 1,617 + 2 × 0.0401)
= Exp(3.1993)
= $24.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,114)
= Exp(a + b × X1,114 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,617 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1025 + 0.0020 × 1,617 – 2 × 0.0401)
= Exp(3.0389)
= $20.88

April 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1025 + 0.0020 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0401)
= Exp(3.6157)
= $37.18

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1025 + 0.0020 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0401)
= Exp(3.4553)
= $31.67

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 106.93% per annum.
  • PPC price at the close of April 16, 2024 was $35.57 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 24, 2024
End date: April 16, 2024

a = -3.5617

b = 0.0039

s = 0.0275

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0039) – 1
= 319.34%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0275) – 1
= 11.62%

January 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,200)
= Exp(a + b × X1,200 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.5617 + 0.0039 × 1,743 + 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(3.3388)
= $28.18

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,200)
= Exp(a + b × X1,200 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.5617 + 0.0039 × 1,743 – 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(3.2288)
= $25.25

April 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.5617 + 0.0039 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(3.6647)
= $39.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.5617 + 0.0039 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(3.5548)
= $34.98

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 319.34% per annum.
  • PPC price at the close of April 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.