Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL)
Hormel Foods Corporation is an American company founded in 1891 in Austin, Minnesota, by George A. Hormel as George A. Hormel & Company. Originally focusing on the packaging and selling of ham, Spam, sausage and other pork, chicken, beef and lamb products to consumers; by the 1980s, Hormel began offering a wider range of packaged and refrigerated foods.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.65% per annum.
- HRL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $31.84 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.25 (0.78%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.77% per annum.
- HRL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.75 (2.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HRL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 1, 2022
End date: February 28, 2024
a = 4.5599
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0567
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0567) – 1
= 25.43%
March 1, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y654)
= Exp(a + b × X654 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 949 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5599 + -0.0007 × 949 + 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(4.0390)
= $56.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y654)
= Exp(a + b × X654 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 949 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5599 + -0.0007 × 949 – 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(3.8124)
= $45.26
February 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5599 + -0.0007 × 1,678 + 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(3.5519)
= $34.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,155)
= Exp(a + b × X1,155 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5599 + -0.0007 × 1,678 – 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(3.3252)
= $27.81
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.65% per annum.
- HRL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $31.84 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.25 (0.78%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 12, 2023
End date: May 29, 2024
a = 2.4301
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0465
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 25.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0465) – 1
= 20.43%
October 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,061)
= Exp(a + b × X1,061 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,539 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4301 + 0.0006 × 1,539 + 2 × 0.0465)
= Exp(3.4898)
= $32.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,061)
= Exp(a + b × X1,061 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,539 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4301 + 0.0006 × 1,539 – 2 × 0.0465)
= Exp(3.3039)
= $27.22
May 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,769 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4301 + 0.0006 × 1,769 + 2 × 0.0465)
= Exp(3.6343)
= $37.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,769 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4301 + 0.0006 × 1,769 – 2 × 0.0465)
= Exp(3.4483)
= $31.45
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.77% per annum.
- HRL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.75 (2.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.