Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)
The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC), commonly known as Kraft Heinz, is an American food company formed by the merger of Kraft Foods and Heinz, co-headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 0.49% per annum.
- KHC price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $33.36 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.83% per annum.
- KHC price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KHC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 18, 2021
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 3.5274
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0638
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 0.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0638) – 1
= 29.08%
February 18, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y393)
= Exp(a + b × X393 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 570 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5274 + 0.0000 × 570 + 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(3.6626)
= $38.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y393)
= Exp(a + b × X393 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 570 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5274 + 0.0000 × 570 – 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(3.4074)
= $30.19
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5274 + 0.0000 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(3.6794)
= $39.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5274 + 0.0000 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(3.4241)
= $30.70
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 0.49% per annum.
- KHC price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $33.36 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 1, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 6.0018
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0252
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0252) – 1
= 10.62%
April 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,176)
= Exp(a + b × X1,176 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,708 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0018 + -0.0014 × 1,708 + 2 × 0.0252)
= Exp(3.6754)
= $39.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,176)
= Exp(a + b × X1,176 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,708 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0018 + -0.0014 × 1,708 – 2 × 0.0252)
= Exp(3.5744)
= $35.67
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0018 + -0.0014 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0252)
= Exp(3.5139)
= $33.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0018 + -0.0014 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0252)
= Exp(3.4130)
= $30.36
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.83% per annum.
- KHC price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.