Stock Price Trends

Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)

The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC), commonly known as Kraft Heinz, is an American food company formed by the merger of Kraft Foods and Heinz, co-headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 0.98% per annum.
  • KHC price at the close of May 6, 2024 was $35.74 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 26.93% per annum.
  • KHC price at the close of May 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KHC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 18, 2021
End date: May 6, 2024

a = 3.5235

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0643

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 0.98%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0643) – 1
= 29.33%

February 18, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y450)
= Exp(a + b × X450 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 653 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5235 + 0.0000 × 653 + 2 × 0.0643)
= Exp(3.6696)
= $39.24

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y450)
= Exp(a + b × X450 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 653 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5235 + 0.0000 × 653 – 2 × 0.0643)
= Exp(3.4124)
= $30.34

May 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5235 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0643)
= Exp(3.7011)
= $40.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5235 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0643)
= Exp(3.4438)
= $31.31

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 0.98% per annum.
  • KHC price at the close of May 6, 2024 was $35.74 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 15, 2023
End date: May 6, 2024

a = 2.4379

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0404

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 26.93%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0404) – 1
= 17.53%

August 15, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,076)
= Exp(a + b × X1,076 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4379 + 0.0007 × 1,561 + 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(3.5386)
= $34.42

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,076)
= Exp(a + b × X1,076 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4379 + 0.0007 × 1,561 – 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(3.3771)
= $29.29

May 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4379 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(3.7117)
= $40.92

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4379 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(3.5502)
= $34.82

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 26.93% per annum.
  • KHC price at the close of May 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.