Apollo Global Management LLC Class A (APO)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.43% per annum.
- APO price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $136.36 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $9.19 (6.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 60.63% per annum.
- APO price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of APO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 26, 2022
End date: February 28, 2025
a = 2.8883
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0884
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 57.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0884) – 1
= 42.45%
April 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y502)
= Exp(a + b × X502 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 727 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8883 + 0.0012 × 727 + 2 × 0.0884)
= Exp(3.9691)
= $52.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y502)
= Exp(a + b × X502 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 727 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8883 + 0.0012 × 727 – 2 × 0.0884)
= Exp(3.6153)
= $37.16
February 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,766 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8883 + 0.0012 × 1,766 + 2 × 0.0884)
= Exp(5.2610)
= $192.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,766 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8883 + 0.0012 × 1,766 – 2 × 0.0884)
= Exp(4.9072)
= $135.26
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.43% per annum.
- APO price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $136.36 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $9.19 (6.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 25, 2024
End date: April 25, 2025
a = 9.4877
b = -0.0026
s = 0.0570
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0026) – 1
= -60.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0570) – 1
= 25.59%
November 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,671 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4877 + -0.0026 × 1,671 + 2 × 0.0570)
= Exp(5.3347)
= $207.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,671 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4877 + -0.0026 × 1,671 – 2 × 0.0570)
= Exp(5.1068)
= $165.15
April 25, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4877 + -0.0026 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0570)
= Exp(4.9491)
= $141.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4877 + -0.0026 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0570)
= Exp(4.7213)
= $112.31
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 60.63% per annum.
- APO price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.