Virtus Investment Partners Inc (VRTS)
Virtus Investment Partners, Inc. is a publicly owned investment manager. The company is headquartered in Hartford, Connecticut.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.40% per annum.
- VRTS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $245.79 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $33.16 (15.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 16.94% per annum.
- VRTS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VRTS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 30, 2020
End date: December 12, 2023
a = 5.7258
b = -0.0004
s = 0.1480
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1480) – 1
= 80.76%
December 30, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y361)
= Exp(a + b × X361 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 523 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7258 + -0.0004 × 523 + 2 × 0.1480)
= Exp(5.8321)
= $341.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y361)
= Exp(a + b × X361 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 523 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7258 + -0.0004 × 523 – 2 × 0.1480)
= Exp(5.2401)
= $188.69
December 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,600 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7258 + -0.0004 × 1,600 + 2 × 0.1480)
= Exp(5.4415)
= $230.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,600 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7258 + -0.0004 × 1,600 – 2 × 0.1480)
= Exp(4.8495)
= $127.68
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.40% per annum.
- VRTS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $245.79 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $33.16 (15.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 22, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.6636
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0829
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 16.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0829) – 1
= 39.32%
April 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y691)
= Exp(a + b × X691 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,001 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6636 + 0.0004 × 1,001 + 2 × 0.0829)
= Exp(5.2587)
= $192.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y691)
= Exp(a + b × X691 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,001 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6636 + 0.0004 × 1,001 – 2 × 0.0829)
= Exp(4.9271)
= $137.97
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6636 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0829)
= Exp(5.6124)
= $273.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6636 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0829)
= Exp(5.2808)
= $196.53
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 16.94% per annum.
- VRTS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.