Carlyle Group Inc (CG)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.60% per annum.
- CG price at the close of July 9, 2025 was $56.87 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 417.76% per annum.
- CG price at the close of July 9, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 15, 2022
End date: March 3, 2025
a = 2.4996
b = 0.0009
s = 0.1030
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 36.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1030) – 1
= 50.96%
September 15, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y550)
= Exp(a + b × X550 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 797 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4996 + 0.0009 × 797 + 2 × 0.1030)
= Exp(3.3865)
= $29.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y550)
= Exp(a + b × X550 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 797 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4996 + 0.0009 × 797 – 2 × 0.1030)
= Exp(2.9747)
= $19.58
March 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,166)
= Exp(a + b × X1,166 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,697 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4996 + 0.0009 × 1,697 + 2 × 0.1030)
= Exp(4.1555)
= $63.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,166)
= Exp(a + b × X1,166 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,697 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4996 + 0.0009 × 1,697 – 2 × 0.1030)
= Exp(3.7437)
= $42.25
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.60% per annum.
- CG price at the close of July 9, 2025 was $56.87 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 4, 2025
End date: July 9, 2025
a = -4.2280
b = 0.0045
s = 0.0455
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0045) – 1
= 417.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0455) – 1
= 19.98%
April 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,729 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2280 + 0.0045 × 1,729 + 2 × 0.0455)
= Exp(3.6524)
= $38.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,729 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2280 + 0.0045 × 1,729 – 2 × 0.0455)
= Exp(3.4702)
= $32.14
July 9, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2280 + 0.0045 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0455)
= Exp(4.0848)
= $59.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.2280 + 0.0045 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0455)
= Exp(3.9027)
= $49.54
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 417.76% per annum.
- CG price at the close of July 9, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.