Stock Price Trends

Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc (APAM)

Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. is a publicly owned investment manager. The company is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin with additional offices in Atlanta, Georgia; New York City; San Francisco, California; Leawood, Kansas; and London, United Kingdom.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 37.03% per annum.
  • APAM price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $43.71 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.46% per annum.
  • APAM price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of APAM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 14, 2022
End date: June 11, 2024

a = 2.2747

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0718

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 37.03%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0718) – 1
= 33.26%

September 14, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y789)
= Exp(a + b × X789 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,143 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2747 + 0.0009 × 1,143 + 2 × 0.0718)
= Exp(3.4048)
= $30.11

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y789)
= Exp(a + b × X789 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,143 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2747 + 0.0009 × 1,143 – 2 × 0.0718)
= Exp(3.1177)
= $22.59

June 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2747 + 0.0009 × 1,779 + 2 × 0.0718)
= Exp(3.9538)
= $52.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2747 + 0.0009 × 1,779 – 2 × 0.0718)
= Exp(3.6666)
= $39.12

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 37.03% per annum.
  • APAM price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $43.71 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 14, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024

a = 3.6767

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0389

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.46%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0389) – 1
= 16.83%

December 14, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,599 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6767 + 0.0000 × 1,599 + 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(3.8180)
= $45.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,599 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6767 + 0.0000 × 1,599 – 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(3.6624)
= $38.95

July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6767 + 0.0000 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(3.8269)
= $45.92

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6767 + 0.0000 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(3.6713)
= $39.30

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.46% per annum.
  • APAM price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.