Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc (APAM)
Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. is a publicly owned investment manager. The company is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin with additional offices in Atlanta, Georgia; New York City; San Francisco, California; Leawood, Kansas; and London, United Kingdom.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.28% per annum.
- APAM price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $44.84 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.97 (45.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 37.28% per annum.
- APAM price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of APAM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 8, 2020
End date: June 6, 2023
a = 3.8793
b = -0.0004
s = 0.1025
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.28%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1025) – 1
= 50.69%
October 8, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y351)
= Exp(a + b × X351 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 507 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8793 + -0.0004 × 507 + 2 × 0.1025)
= Exp(3.9024)
= $49.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y351)
= Exp(a + b × X351 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 507 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8793 + -0.0004 × 507 – 2 × 0.1025)
= Exp(3.4923)
= $32.86
June 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,019)
= Exp(a + b × X1,019 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,478 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8793 + -0.0004 × 1,478 + 2 × 0.1025)
= Exp(3.5539)
= $34.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,019)
= Exp(a + b × X1,019 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,478 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8793 + -0.0004 × 1,478 – 2 × 0.1025)
= Exp(3.1438)
= $23.19
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.28% per annum.
- APAM price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $44.84 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.97 (45.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2022
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 2.2075
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0729
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 37.28%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0729) – 1
= 33.84%
September 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y836)
= Exp(a + b × X836 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2075 + 0.0009 × 1,212 + 2 × 0.0729)
= Exp(3.4055)
= $30.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y836)
= Exp(a + b × X836 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2075 + 0.0009 × 1,212 – 2 × 0.0729)
= Exp(3.1140)
= $22.51
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2075 + 0.0009 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0729)
= Exp(3.9368)
= $51.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2075 + 0.0009 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0729)
= Exp(3.6453)
= $38.29
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 37.28% per annum.
- APAM price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.