Invesco Plc (IVZ)
Invesco Ltd. is an American independent investment management company that is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.27% per annum.
- IVZ price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $16.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.47 (10.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.48% per annum.
- IVZ price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IVZ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 9, 2021
End date: December 12, 2023
a = 3.4930
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0955
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0955) – 1
= 46.54%
February 9, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y435)
= Exp(a + b × X435 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 631 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4930 + -0.0006 × 631 + 2 × 0.0955)
= Exp(3.3353)
= $28.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y435)
= Exp(a + b × X435 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 631 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4930 + -0.0006 × 631 – 2 × 0.0955)
= Exp(2.9532)
= $19.17
December 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,150)
= Exp(a + b × X1,150 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,667 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4930 + -0.0006 × 1,667 + 2 × 0.0955)
= Exp(2.7627)
= $15.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,150)
= Exp(a + b × X1,150 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,667 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4930 + -0.0006 × 1,667 – 2 × 0.0955)
= Exp(2.3806)
= $10.81
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.27% per annum.
- IVZ price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $16.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.47 (10.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 26, 2022
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 2.8228
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0924
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0924) – 1
= 44.70%
April 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y740)
= Exp(a + b × X740 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,072 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8228 + -0.0001 × 1,072 + 2 × 0.0924)
= Exp(2.9338)
= $18.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y740)
= Exp(a + b × X740 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,072 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8228 + -0.0001 × 1,072 – 2 × 0.0924)
= Exp(2.5643)
= $12.99
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8228 + -0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0924)
= Exp(2.8821)
= $17.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8228 + -0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0924)
= Exp(2.5126)
= $12.34
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.48% per annum.
- IVZ price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.