Invesco Plc (IVZ)
Invesco Ltd. is an American independent investment management company that is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.22% per annum.
- IVZ price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $17.11 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.11 (22.20%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 1.57% per annum.
- IVZ price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IVZ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 8, 2021
End date: December 12, 2023
a = 3.4540
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0958
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0958) – 1
= 46.67%
February 8, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y387)
= Exp(a + b × X387 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 563 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4540 + -0.0006 × 563 + 2 × 0.0958)
= Exp(3.3352)
= $28.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y387)
= Exp(a + b × X387 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 563 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4540 + -0.0006 × 563 – 2 × 0.0958)
= Exp(2.9522)
= $19.15
December 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,600 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4540 + -0.0006 × 1,600 + 2 × 0.0958)
= Exp(2.7637)
= $15.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,600 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4540 + -0.0006 × 1,600 – 2 × 0.0958)
= Exp(2.3807)
= $10.81
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.22% per annum.
- IVZ price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $17.11 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.11 (22.20%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 26, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.7860
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0899
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -1.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0899) – 1
= 43.30%
April 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y693)
= Exp(a + b × X693 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,005 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7860 + 0.0000 × 1,005 + 2 × 0.0899)
= Exp(2.9223)
= $18.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y693)
= Exp(a + b × X693 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,005 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7860 + 0.0000 × 1,005 – 2 × 0.0899)
= Exp(2.5625)
= $12.97
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7860 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0899)
= Exp(2.8866)
= $17.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7860 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0899)
= Exp(2.5269)
= $12.51
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 1.57% per annum.
- IVZ price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.