Stock Price Trends

Victory Capital Holdings Inc (VCTR)

Victory Capital Holdings, Inc., is a global asset management company. The company is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.87% per annum.
  • VCTR price at the close of September 3, 2025 was $70.58 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.16% per annum.
  • VCTR price at the close of September 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VCTR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 13, 2022
End date: September 3, 2025

a = 2.3606

b = 0.0011

s = 0.1017

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 46.87%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1017) – 1
= 50.19%

June 13, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y445)
= Exp(a + b × X445 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 647 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3606 + 0.0011 × 647 + 2 × 0.1017)
= Exp(3.2453)
= $25.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y445)
= Exp(a + b × X445 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 647 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3606 + 0.0011 × 647 – 2 × 0.1017)
= Exp(2.8386)
= $17.09

September 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3606 + 0.0011 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1017)
= Exp(4.4859)
= $88.76

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3606 + 0.0011 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1017)
= Exp(4.0792)
= $59.10

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.87% per annum.
  • VCTR price at the close of September 3, 2025 was $70.58 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 11, 2024
End date: September 3, 2025

a = 3.7446

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0710

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 9.16%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0710) – 1
= 32.82%

October 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,031)
= Exp(a + b × X1,031 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,498 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7446 + 0.0002 × 1,498 + 2 × 0.0710)
= Exp(4.2464)
= $69.85

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,031)
= Exp(a + b × X1,031 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,498 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7446 + 0.0002 × 1,498 – 2 × 0.0710)
= Exp(3.9625)
= $52.59

September 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7446 + 0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0710)
= Exp(4.3249)
= $75.56

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7446 + 0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0710)
= Exp(4.0411)
= $56.89

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.16% per annum.
  • VCTR price at the close of September 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.