Stock Price Trends

WisdomTree Inc. (WT)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 120.87% per annum.
  • WT price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $11.62 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 70.86% per annum.
  • WT price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.42 (3.75%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 27, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024

a = -1.5729

b = 0.0022

s = 0.0437

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 120.87%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0437) – 1
= 19.10%

October 27, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,551 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.5729 + 0.0022 × 1,551 + 2 × 0.0437)
= Exp(1.8818)
= $6.57

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,551 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.5729 + 0.0022 × 1,551 – 2 × 0.0437)
= Exp(1.7070)
= $5.51

July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.5729 + 0.0022 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0437)
= Exp(2.4745)
= $11.88

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.5729 + 0.0022 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0437)
= Exp(2.2997)
= $9.97

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 120.87% per annum.
  • WT price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $11.62 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 8, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024

a = -0.3251

b = 0.0015

s = 0.0321

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 70.86%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0321) – 1
= 13.70%

March 8, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,149)
= Exp(a + b × X1,149 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,684 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3251 + 0.0015 × 1,684 + 2 × 0.0321)
= Exp(2.2104)
= $9.12

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,149)
= Exp(a + b × X1,149 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,684 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3251 + 0.0015 × 1,684 – 2 × 0.0321)
= Exp(2.0821)
= $8.02

July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3251 + 0.0015 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0321)
= Exp(2.4159)
= $11.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3251 + 0.0015 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0321)
= Exp(2.2875)
= $9.85

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 70.86% per annum.
  • WT price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.42 (3.75%).