Stock Price Trends

Bank of New York Mellon (BK)

The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation, commonly known as BNY Mellon, is a multinational American investment banking services holding company headquartered in New York City.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.14% per annum.
  • BK price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $80.04 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.71 (2.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 40.83% per annum.
  • BK price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 25, 2023
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 2.2413

b = 0.0012

s = 0.0487

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 57.14%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0487) – 1
= 21.52%

April 25, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y751)
= Exp(a + b × X751 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,090 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2413 + 0.0012 × 1,090 + 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(3.6884)
= $39.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y751)
= Exp(a + b × X751 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,090 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2413 + 0.0012 × 1,090 – 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(3.4935)
= $32.90

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2413 + 0.0012 × 1,798 + 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(4.5651)
= $96.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2413 + 0.0012 × 1,798 – 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(4.3702)
= $79.06

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.14% per annum.
  • BK price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $80.04 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.71 (2.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 24, 2025
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 6.9673

b = -0.0014

s = 0.0330

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.83%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0330) – 1
= 14.13%

January 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9673 + -0.0014 × 1,730 + 2 × 0.0330)
= Exp(4.5464)
= $94.29

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9673 + -0.0014 × 1,730 – 2 × 0.0330)
= Exp(4.4142)
= $82.62

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9673 + -0.0014 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0330)
= Exp(4.4098)
= $82.25

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9673 + -0.0014 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0330)
= Exp(4.2776)
= $72.07

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 40.83% per annum.
  • BK price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.