Bank of New York Mellon (BK)
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation, commonly known as BNY Mellon, is a multinational American investment banking services holding company headquartered in New York City.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 47.95% per annum.
- BK price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $64.81 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 31.81% per annum.
- BK price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.95 (1.48%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 25, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.1697
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0471
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 47.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0471) – 1
= 20.71%
April 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y943)
= Exp(a + b × X943 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,369 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1697 + 0.0011 × 1,369 + 2 × 0.0471)
= Exp(3.7329)
= $41.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y943)
= Exp(a + b × X943 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,369 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1697 + 0.0011 × 1,369 – 2 × 0.0471)
= Exp(3.5447)
= $34.63
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1697 + 0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0471)
= Exp(4.2233)
= $68.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1697 + 0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0471)
= Exp(4.0351)
= $56.55
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 47.95% per annum.
- BK price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $64.81 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 12, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.7316
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0218
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 31.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0218) – 1
= 9.09%
January 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,124)
= Exp(a + b × X1,124 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,631 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7316 + 0.0008 × 1,631 + 2 × 0.0218)
= Exp(4.0092)
= $55.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,124)
= Exp(a + b × X1,124 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,631 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7316 + 0.0008 × 1,631 – 2 × 0.0218)
= Exp(3.9222)
= $50.51
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7316 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0218)
= Exp(4.1568)
= $63.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7316 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0218)
= Exp(4.0697)
= $58.54
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 31.81% per annum.
- BK price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.95 (1.48%).