Bank of New York Mellon (BK)
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation, commonly known as BNY Mellon, is a multinational American investment banking services holding company headquartered in New York City.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.14% per annum.
- BK price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $80.04 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.71 (2.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 40.83% per annum.
- BK price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 25, 2023
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 2.2413
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0487
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 57.14%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0487) – 1
= 21.52%
April 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y751)
= Exp(a + b × X751 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,090 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2413 + 0.0012 × 1,090 + 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(3.6884)
= $39.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y751)
= Exp(a + b × X751 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,090 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2413 + 0.0012 × 1,090 – 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(3.4935)
= $32.90
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2413 + 0.0012 × 1,798 + 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(4.5651)
= $96.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2413 + 0.0012 × 1,798 – 2 × 0.0487)
= Exp(4.3702)
= $79.06
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.14% per annum.
- BK price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $80.04 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.71 (2.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 24, 2025
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 6.9673
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0330
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0330) – 1
= 14.13%
January 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9673 + -0.0014 × 1,730 + 2 × 0.0330)
= Exp(4.5464)
= $94.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9673 + -0.0014 × 1,730 – 2 × 0.0330)
= Exp(4.4142)
= $82.62
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9673 + -0.0014 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0330)
= Exp(4.4098)
= $82.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9673 + -0.0014 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0330)
= Exp(4.2776)
= $72.07
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 40.83% per annum.
- BK price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.