Stock Price Trends

Franklin Resources Inc (BEN)

Franklin Resources Inc. is an American multinational holding company that, together with its subsidiaries, is referred to as Franklin Templeton; it is a global investment firm founded in New York City in 1947 as Franklin Distributors, Inc.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.18% per annum.
  • BEN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $23.64 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.46 (2.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 84.60% per annum.
  • BEN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BEN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 14, 2023
End date: July 11, 2024

a = 5.4809

b = -0.0013

s = 0.0343

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.18%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0343) – 1
= 14.71%

December 14, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,602 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4809 + -0.0013 × 1,602 + 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(3.4384)
= $31.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,602 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4809 + -0.0013 × 1,602 – 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(3.3011)
= $27.14

July 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4809 + -0.0013 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(3.1616)
= $23.61

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4809 + -0.0013 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(3.0244)
= $20.58

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.18% per annum.
  • BEN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $23.64 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.46 (2.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 11, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024

a = 0.0890

b = 0.0017

s = 0.0181

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 84.60%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0181) – 1
= 7.53%

June 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,782 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0890 + 0.0017 × 1,782 + 2 × 0.0181)
= Exp(3.1180)
= $22.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,782 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0890 + 0.0017 × 1,782 – 2 × 0.0181)
= Exp(3.0455)
= $21.02

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0890 + 0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0181)
= Exp(3.1919)
= $24.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0890 + 0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0181)
= Exp(3.1194)
= $22.63

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 84.60% per annum.
  • BEN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.