Franklin Resources Inc (BEN)
Franklin Resources Inc. is an American multinational holding company that, together with its subsidiaries, is referred to as Franklin Templeton; it is a global investment firm founded in New York City in 1947 as Franklin Distributors, Inc.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.18% per annum.
- BEN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $23.64 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.46 (2.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 84.60% per annum.
- BEN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BEN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 14, 2023
End date: July 11, 2024
a = 5.4809
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0343
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0343) – 1
= 14.71%
December 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,602 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4809 + -0.0013 × 1,602 + 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(3.4384)
= $31.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,602 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4809 + -0.0013 × 1,602 – 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(3.3011)
= $27.14
July 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4809 + -0.0013 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(3.1616)
= $23.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4809 + -0.0013 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(3.0244)
= $20.58
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.18% per annum.
- BEN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $23.64 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.46 (2.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 11, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 0.0890
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0181
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 84.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0181) – 1
= 7.53%
June 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,782 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0890 + 0.0017 × 1,782 + 2 × 0.0181)
= Exp(3.1180)
= $22.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,782 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0890 + 0.0017 × 1,782 – 2 × 0.0181)
= Exp(3.0455)
= $21.02
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0890 + 0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0181)
= Exp(3.1919)
= $24.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0890 + 0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0181)
= Exp(3.1194)
= $22.63
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 84.60% per annum.
- BEN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.