Callon Petroleum Company (CPE)
Callon Petroleum Company, an independent oil and natural gas company, focuses on the acquisition, exploration and development of oil and natural gas properties in the Permian Basin in West Texas. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.74% per annum.
- CPE price at the close of April 11, 2024 was $35.76 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 329.99% per annum.
- CPE price at the close of April 11, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.31 (0.85%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CPE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 27, 2021
End date: March 27, 2024
a = 4.5985
b = -0.0007
s = 0.1118
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1118) – 1
= 56.40%
September 27, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y597)
= Exp(a + b × X597 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 866 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5985 + -0.0007 × 866 + 2 × 0.1118)
= Exp(4.2406)
= $69.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y597)
= Exp(a + b × X597 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 866 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5985 + -0.0007 × 866 – 2 × 0.1118)
= Exp(3.7933)
= $44.40
March 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5985 + -0.0007 × 1,778 + 2 × 0.1118)
= Exp(3.6281)
= $37.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5985 + -0.0007 × 1,778 – 2 × 0.1118)
= Exp(3.1809)
= $24.07
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.74% per annum.
- CPE price at the close of April 11, 2024 was $35.76 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 22, 2024
End date: April 5, 2024
a = -3.5459
b = 0.0040
s = 0.0169
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0040) – 1
= 329.99%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0169) – 1
= 6.99%
February 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,744 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.5459 + 0.0040 × 1,744 + 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(3.4571)
= $31.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,744 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.5459 + 0.0040 × 1,744 – 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(3.3896)
= $29.65
April 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,787 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.5459 + 0.0040 × 1,787 + 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(3.6289)
= $37.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,787 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.5459 + 0.0040 × 1,787 – 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(3.5614)
= $35.21
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 329.99% per annum.
- CPE price at the close of April 11, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.31 (0.85%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.