Pioneer Natural Resources Co (PXD)
Pioneer Natural Resources Company is a company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration headquartered in Irving, Texas. It operates in the Cline Shale, which is part of the Spraberry Trend of the Permian Basin, where the company is the largest acreage holder.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 5.07% per annum.
- PXD price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $268.87 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.68 (2.94%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 163.24% per annum.
- PXD price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PXD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 31, 2022
End date: March 12, 2024
a = 5.1736
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0722
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 5.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0722) – 1
= 33.51%
January 31, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y696)
= Exp(a + b × X696 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,008 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1736 + 0.0001 × 1,008 + 2 × 0.0722)
= Exp(5.4547)
= $233.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y696)
= Exp(a + b × X696 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,008 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1736 + 0.0001 × 1,008 – 2 × 0.0722)
= Exp(5.1657)
= $175.16
March 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1736 + 0.0001 × 1,779 + 2 × 0.0722)
= Exp(5.5591)
= $259.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1736 + 0.0001 × 1,779 – 2 × 0.0722)
= Exp(5.2701)
= $194.44
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 5.07% per annum.
- PXD price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $268.87 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.68 (2.94%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 16, 2024
End date: April 25, 2024
a = 0.7935
b = 0.0027
s = 0.0192
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0027) – 1
= 163.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0192) – 1
= 7.96%
January 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,723 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7935 + 0.0027 × 1,723 + 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(5.4007)
= $221.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,723 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7935 + 0.0027 × 1,723 – 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(5.3241)
= $205.23
April 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7935 + 0.0027 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(5.6659)
= $288.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7935 + 0.0027 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(5.5893)
= $267.55
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 163.24% per annum.
- PXD price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.