Stock Price Trends

Century Communities Inc (CCS)

Century Communities, Inc. is dedicated to the design, development, construction, marketing and sale of attached and attached single-family homes. The company is headquartered in Greenwood Village, Colorado.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 55.79% per annum.
  • CCS price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $54.09 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.01 (1.83%).
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 90.28% per annum.
  • CCS price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CCS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 23, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 8.1874

b = -0.0022

s = 0.0485

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -55.79%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0485) – 1
= 21.40%

August 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,577 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1874 + -0.0022 × 1,577 + 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(4.7577)
= $116.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,577 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1874 + -0.0022 × 1,577 – 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(4.5637)
= $95.94

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1874 + -0.0022 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(4.2031)
= $66.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1874 + -0.0022 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(4.0091)
= $55.10

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 55.79% per annum.
  • CCS price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $54.09 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.01 (1.83%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 19, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 15.6630

b = -0.0064

s = 0.0300

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0064) – 1
= -90.28%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0300) – 1
= 12.77%

March 19, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,228)
= Exp(a + b × X1,228 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.6630 + -0.0064 × 1,785 + 2 × 0.0300)
= Exp(4.3255)
= $75.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,228)
= Exp(a + b × X1,228 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.6630 + -0.0064 × 1,785 – 2 × 0.0300)
= Exp(4.2053)
= $67.04

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.6630 + -0.0064 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0300)
= Exp(4.0701)
= $58.56

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.6630 + -0.0064 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0300)
= Exp(3.9499)
= $51.93

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 90.28% per annum.
  • CCS price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.