NVR Inc (NVR)
NVR, Inc. is a leading residential construction company specializing in the development and sale of single-family homes, townhomes, and condominium buildings primarily along the East Coast of the United States. In addition to its robust homebuilding operations, NVR also provides mortgage banking and title services, enhancing customer convenience and streamlining the home buying process. With a strong commitment to quality and customer satisfaction, NVR has established itself as a prominent player in the housing market, continuously adapting to changing economic conditions and consumer preferences.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.67% per annum.
- NVR price at the close of March 25, 2026 was $6,552.20 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 85.15% per annum.
- NVR price at the close of March 25, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NVR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 15, 2024
End date: March 25, 2026
a = 9.5361
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0738
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.67%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0738) – 1
= 34.34%
July 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y829)
= Exp(a + b × X829 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,207 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5361 + -0.0004 × 1,207 + 2 × 0.0738)
= Exp(9.2357)
= $10,256.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y829)
= Exp(a + b × X829 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,207 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5361 + -0.0004 × 1,207 – 2 × 0.0738)
= Exp(8.9405)
= $7,635.03
March 25, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5361 + -0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0738)
= Exp(9.0064)
= $8,154.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5361 + -0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0738)
= Exp(8.7111)
= $6,070.19
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.67% per annum.
- NVR price at the close of March 25, 2026 was $6,552.20 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 4, 2026
End date: March 25, 2026
a = 18.2878
b = -0.0052
s = 0.0242
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0052) – 1
= -85.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0242) – 1
= 10.16%
February 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,776 + 2 × s)
= Exp(18.2878 + -0.0052 × 1,776 + 2 × 0.0242)
= Exp(9.0579)
= $8,586.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,776 – 2 × s)
= Exp(18.2878 + -0.0052 × 1,776 – 2 × 0.0242)
= Exp(8.9611)
= $7,794.14
March 25, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(18.2878 + -0.0052 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0242)
= Exp(8.8019)
= $6,646.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(18.2878 + -0.0052 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0242)
= Exp(8.7051)
= $6,033.84
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 85.15% per annum.
- NVR price at the close of March 25, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.