NVR Inc (NVR)
NVR, Inc. is a company engaged in home construction. It also operates a mortgage banking and title services business. The company primarily operates on the East Coast of the United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 46.54% per annum.
- NVR price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $7,040.35 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.01% per annum.
- NVR price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NVR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 19, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 11.9567
b = -0.0017
s = 0.0293
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -46.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0293) – 1
= 12.42%
September 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,604 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.9567 + -0.0017 × 1,604 + 2 × 0.0293)
= Exp(9.2629)
= $10,539.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,604 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.9567 + -0.0017 × 1,604 – 2 × 0.0293)
= Exp(9.1458)
= $9,374.80
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.9567 + -0.0017 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0293)
= Exp(8.8836)
= $7,213.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.9567 + -0.0017 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0293)
= Exp(8.7666)
= $6,416.06
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 46.54% per annum.
- NVR price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $7,040.35 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 12, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 9.5668
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0175
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0175) – 1
= 7.23%
February 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,750 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5668 + -0.0004 × 1,750 + 2 × 0.0175)
= Exp(8.9334)
= $7,581.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,750 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5668 + -0.0004 × 1,750 – 2 × 0.0175)
= Exp(8.8636)
= $7,070.10
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5668 + -0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0175)
= Exp(8.9048)
= $7,367.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.5668 + -0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0175)
= Exp(8.8350)
= $6,870.49
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.01% per annum.
- NVR price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.