Green Brick Partners Inc (GRBK)
Green Brick Partners, Inc. is a home construction and land development company in the United States. The company is headquartered in Plano, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 45.49% per annum.
- GRBK price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $57.99 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.85% per annum.
- GRBK price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GRBK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 21, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 7.0109
b = -0.0017
s = 0.0630
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -45.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0630) – 1
= 28.64%
August 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,085)
= Exp(a + b × X1,085 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0109 + -0.0017 × 1,575 + 2 × 0.0630)
= Exp(4.5189)
= $91.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,085)
= Exp(a + b × X1,085 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0109 + -0.0017 × 1,575 – 2 × 0.0630)
= Exp(4.2670)
= $71.31
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0109 + -0.0017 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0630)
= Exp(4.1033)
= $60.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0109 + -0.0017 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0630)
= Exp(3.8515)
= $47.06
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 45.49% per annum.
- GRBK price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $57.99 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 18, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 4.2557
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0352
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0352) – 1
= 15.12%
December 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2557 + -0.0001 × 1,694 + 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(4.1438)
= $63.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2557 + -0.0001 × 1,694 – 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(4.0030)
= $54.76
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2557 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(4.1297)
= $62.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2557 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0352)
= Exp(3.9889)
= $53.99
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.85% per annum.
- GRBK price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.