Stock Price Trends

Green Brick Partners Inc (GRBK)

Green Brick Partners, Inc. is a home construction and land development company in the United States. The company is headquartered in Plano, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.71% per annum.
  • GRBK price at the close of June 27, 2025 was $63.33 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.36% per annum.
  • GRBK price at the close of June 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GRBK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 16, 2024
End date: June 20, 2025

a = 5.8346

b = -0.0010

s = 0.0766

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -30.71%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0766) – 1
= 35.86%

July 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,016)
= Exp(a + b × X1,016 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,477 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8346 + -0.0010 × 1,477 + 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(4.5030)
= $90.29

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,016)
= Exp(a + b × X1,016 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,477 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8346 + -0.0010 × 1,477 – 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(4.1966)
= $66.46

June 20, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8346 + -0.0010 × 1,816 + 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(4.1622)
= $64.21

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8346 + -0.0010 × 1,816 – 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(3.8558)
= $47.27

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.71% per annum.
  • GRBK price at the close of June 27, 2025 was $63.33 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 18, 2024
End date: June 27, 2025

a = 3.6969

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0349

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.36%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0349) – 1
= 14.98%

December 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,125)
= Exp(a + b × X1,125 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,632 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6969 + 0.0002 × 1,632 + 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(4.1257)
= $61.91

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,125)
= Exp(a + b × X1,125 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,632 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6969 + 0.0002 × 1,632 – 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(3.9861)
= $53.85

June 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6969 + 0.0002 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(4.1677)
= $64.57

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6969 + 0.0002 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(4.0281)
= $56.16

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.36% per annum.
  • GRBK price at the close of June 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.