Green Brick Partners Inc (GRBK)
Green Brick Partners, Inc. is a home construction and land development company in the United States. The company is headquartered in Plano, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.07% per annum.
- GRBK price at the close of September 17, 2025 was $71.79 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $12.61 (21.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 76.52% per annum.
- GRBK price at the close of September 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GRBK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 12, 2024
End date: June 20, 2025
a = 5.7129
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0780
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -30.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0780) – 1
= 36.59%
July 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y958)
= Exp(a + b × X958 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,393 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7129 + -0.0010 × 1,393 + 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(4.5039)
= $90.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y958)
= Exp(a + b × X958 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,393 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7129 + -0.0010 × 1,393 – 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(4.1921)
= $66.16
June 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7129 + -0.0010 × 1,736 + 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(4.1678)
= $64.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7129 + -0.0010 × 1,736 – 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(3.8560)
= $47.28
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.07% per annum.
- GRBK price at the close of September 17, 2025 was $71.79 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $12.61 (21.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 3, 2025
End date: September 17, 2025
a = 1.4334
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0292
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 76.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0292) – 1
= 12.40%
April 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,140)
= Exp(a + b × X1,140 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,658 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4334 + 0.0016 × 1,658 + 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(4.0732)
= $58.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,140)
= Exp(a + b × X1,140 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,658 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4334 + 0.0016 × 1,658 – 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(3.9563)
= $52.26
September 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4334 + 0.0016 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(4.3332)
= $76.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4334 + 0.0016 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(4.2163)
= $67.78
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 76.52% per annum.
- GRBK price at the close of September 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.