Green Brick Partners Inc (GRBK)
Green Brick Partners, Inc. is a home construction and land development company in the United States. The company is headquartered in Plano, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.71% per annum.
- GRBK price at the close of June 27, 2025 was $63.33 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.36% per annum.
- GRBK price at the close of June 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GRBK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 16, 2024
End date: June 20, 2025
a = 5.8346
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0766
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -30.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0766) – 1
= 35.86%
July 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,016)
= Exp(a + b × X1,016 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,477 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8346 + -0.0010 × 1,477 + 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(4.5030)
= $90.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,016)
= Exp(a + b × X1,016 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,477 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8346 + -0.0010 × 1,477 – 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(4.1966)
= $66.46
June 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8346 + -0.0010 × 1,816 + 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(4.1622)
= $64.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8346 + -0.0010 × 1,816 – 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(3.8558)
= $47.27
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.71% per annum.
- GRBK price at the close of June 27, 2025 was $63.33 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 18, 2024
End date: June 27, 2025
a = 3.6969
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0349
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0349) – 1
= 14.98%
December 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,125)
= Exp(a + b × X1,125 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,632 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6969 + 0.0002 × 1,632 + 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(4.1257)
= $61.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,125)
= Exp(a + b × X1,125 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,632 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6969 + 0.0002 × 1,632 – 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(3.9861)
= $53.85
June 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6969 + 0.0002 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(4.1677)
= $64.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6969 + 0.0002 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(4.0281)
= $56.16
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.36% per annum.
- GRBK price at the close of June 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.