DR Horton Inc (DHI)
D.R. Horton, Inc. is a home construction company incorporated in Delaware and headquartered in Arlington, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 54.46% per annum.
- DHI price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $125.17 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.37% per annum.
- DHI price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DHI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 21, 2024
End date: April 23, 2025
a = 8.6825
b = -0.0022
s = 0.0419
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -54.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0419) – 1
= 18.27%
August 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,085)
= Exp(a + b × X1,085 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6825 + -0.0022 × 1,575 + 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(5.3721)
= $215.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,085)
= Exp(a + b × X1,085 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6825 + -0.0022 × 1,575 – 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(5.2043)
= $182.06
April 23, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6825 + -0.0022 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(4.8441)
= $126.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6825 + -0.0022 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(4.6763)
= $107.37
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 54.46% per annum.
- DHI price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $125.17 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 13, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 7.2955
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0325
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0325) – 1
= 13.86%
December 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,689 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2955 + -0.0014 × 1,689 + 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(5.0450)
= $155.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,689 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2955 + -0.0014 × 1,689 – 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(4.9152)
= $136.34
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2955 + -0.0014 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(4.8585)
= $128.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2955 + -0.0014 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(4.7287)
= $113.15
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.37% per annum.
- DHI price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.