Stock Price Trends

DR Horton Inc (DHI)

D.R. Horton, Inc. is a home construction company incorporated in Delaware and headquartered in Arlington, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 54.46% per annum.
  • DHI price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $125.17 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.37% per annum.
  • DHI price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DHI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 21, 2024
End date: April 23, 2025

a = 8.6825

b = -0.0022

s = 0.0419

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -54.46%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0419) – 1
= 18.27%

August 21, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,085)
= Exp(a + b × X1,085 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6825 + -0.0022 × 1,575 + 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(5.3721)
= $215.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,085)
= Exp(a + b × X1,085 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6825 + -0.0022 × 1,575 – 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(5.2043)
= $182.06

April 23, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6825 + -0.0022 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(4.8441)
= $126.99

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6825 + -0.0022 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(4.6763)
= $107.37

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 54.46% per annum.
  • DHI price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $125.17 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 13, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 7.2955

b = -0.0014

s = 0.0325

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.37%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0325) – 1
= 13.86%

December 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,689 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2955 + -0.0014 × 1,689 + 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(5.0450)
= $155.24

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,689 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2955 + -0.0014 × 1,689 – 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(4.9152)
= $136.34

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2955 + -0.0014 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(4.8585)
= $128.84

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2955 + -0.0014 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(4.7287)
= $113.15

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.37% per annum.
  • DHI price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.