Stock Price Trends

Lennar Corporation (LEN)

Lennar Corporation is a home construction and real estate company based in Fontainebleau, Florida.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 61.24% per annum.
  • LEN price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $108.15 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 51.44% per annum.
  • LEN price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LEN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 13, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 9.3795

b = -0.0026

s = 0.0404

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0026) – 1
= -61.24%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0404) – 1
= 17.56%

September 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,101)
= Exp(a + b × X1,101 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,598 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3795 + -0.0026 × 1,598 + 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(5.3105)
= $202.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,101)
= Exp(a + b × X1,101 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,598 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3795 + -0.0026 × 1,598 – 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(5.1487)
= $172.21

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3795 + -0.0026 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(4.7210)
= $112.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3795 + -0.0026 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(4.5592)
= $95.50

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 61.24% per annum.
  • LEN price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $108.15 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 18, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 8.2805

b = -0.0020

s = 0.0326

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -51.44%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0326) – 1
= 13.94%

December 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2805 + -0.0020 × 1,694 + 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(4.9927)
= $147.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,168)
= Exp(a + b × X1,168 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2805 + -0.0020 × 1,694 – 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(4.8622)
= $129.31

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2805 + -0.0020 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(4.7334)
= $113.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2805 + -0.0020 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(4.6029)
= $99.77

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 51.44% per annum.
  • LEN price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.