Meritage Corporation (MTH)
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) is a leading U.S. homebuilder based in Scottsdale, Arizona, specializing in the design and construction of energy-efficient single-family homes. With a commitment to innovative building practices and sustainable living solutions, Meritage targets strategic markets across the country, catering to a diverse range of customers. The company differentiates itself through its focus on quality craftsmanship and modern home features, making it well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for homeownership in a competitive housing landscape. Through its robust portfolio and experienced management team, Meritage aims to deliver substantial long-term value to its shareholders.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.71% per annum.
- MTH price at the close of January 28, 2026 was $69.18 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.87% per annum.
- MTH price at the close of January 28, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MTH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 26, 2024
End date: January 8, 2026
a = 5.1388
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0926
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0926) – 1
= 44.81%
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y815)
= Exp(a + b × X815 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1388 + -0.0005 × 1,183 + 2 × 0.0926)
= Exp(4.6920)
= $109.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y815)
= Exp(a + b × X815 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1388 + -0.0005 × 1,183 – 2 × 0.0926)
= Exp(4.3218)
= $75.32
January 8, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1388 + -0.0005 × 1,805 + 2 × 0.0926)
= Exp(4.3598)
= $78.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1388 + -0.0005 × 1,805 – 2 × 0.0926)
= Exp(3.9896)
= $54.03
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.71% per annum.
- MTH price at the close of January 28, 2026 was $69.18 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 12, 2025
End date: January 28, 2026
a = 3.8524
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0596
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0596) – 1
= 26.90%
March 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,033)
= Exp(a + b × X1,033 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,503 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8524 + 0.0002 × 1,503 + 2 × 0.0596)
= Exp(4.3214)
= $75.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,033)
= Exp(a + b × X1,033 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,503 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8524 + 0.0002 × 1,503 – 2 × 0.0596)
= Exp(4.0832)
= $59.33
January 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8524 + 0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0596)
= Exp(4.3964)
= $81.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8524 + 0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0596)
= Exp(4.1581)
= $63.95
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.87% per annum.
- MTH price at the close of January 28, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.