Meritage Corporation (MTH)
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) is a leading U.S. homebuilder based in Scottsdale, Arizona, specializing in the design and construction of energy-efficient single-family homes. With a commitment to innovative building practices and sustainable living solutions, Meritage targets strategic markets across the country, catering to a diverse range of customers. The company differentiates itself through its focus on quality craftsmanship and modern home features, making it well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for homeownership in a competitive housing landscape. Through its robust portfolio and experienced management team, Meritage aims to deliver substantial long-term value to its shareholders.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.97% per annum.
- MTH price at the close of March 27, 2026 was $60.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 94.50% per annum.
- MTH price at the close of March 27, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MTH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 13, 2023
End date: March 27, 2026
a = 4.7336
b = -0.0003
s = 0.1006
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1006) – 1
= 49.57%
December 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y682)
= Exp(a + b × X682 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 988 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7336 + -0.0003 × 988 + 2 × 0.1006)
= Exp(4.6504)
= $104.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y682)
= Exp(a + b × X682 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 988 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7336 + -0.0003 × 988 – 2 × 0.1006)
= Exp(4.2479)
= $69.96
March 27, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7336 + -0.0003 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1006)
= Exp(4.4101)
= $82.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7336 + -0.0003 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1006)
= Exp(4.0075)
= $55.01
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.97% per annum.
- MTH price at the close of March 27, 2026 was $60.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 13, 2026
End date: March 27, 2026
a = 18.5525
b = -0.0079
s = 0.0247
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0079) – 1
= -94.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0247) – 1
= 10.39%
February 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,781 + 2 × s)
= Exp(18.5525 + -0.0079 × 1,781 + 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(4.4496)
= $85.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,781 – 2 × s)
= Exp(18.5525 + -0.0079 × 1,781 – 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(4.3508)
= $77.54
March 27, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(18.5525 + -0.0079 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(4.1159)
= $61.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(18.5525 + -0.0079 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(4.0170)
= $55.54
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 94.50% per annum.
- MTH price at the close of March 27, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.