Stock Price Trends

Meritage Corporation (MTH)

Meritage Homes Corporation designs and builds single-family homes in the United States. The company is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.68% per annum.
  • MTH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $67.69 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 513.21% per annum.
  • MTH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MTH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 12, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 7.8085

b = -0.0020

s = 0.0420

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -51.68%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0420) – 1
= 18.30%

September 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,100)
= Exp(a + b × X1,100 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,597 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8085 + -0.0020 × 1,597 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.7099)
= $111.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,100)
= Exp(a + b × X1,100 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,597 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8085 + -0.0020 × 1,597 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.5418)
= $93.86

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8085 + -0.0020 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.2555)
= $70.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8085 + -0.0020 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.0874)
= $59.59

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.68% per annum.
  • MTH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $67.69 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 10, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025

a = -4.8365

b = 0.0050

s = 0.0187

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0050) – 1
= 513.21%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0187) – 1
= 7.75%

April 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.8365 + 0.0050 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(4.1790)
= $65.30

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.8365 + 0.0050 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(4.1044)
= $60.61

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.8365 + 0.0050 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(4.2685)
= $71.41

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.8365 + 0.0050 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(4.1938)
= $66.28

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 513.21% per annum.
  • MTH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.