Meritage Corporation (MTH)
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) is a leading U.S. homebuilder based in Scottsdale, Arizona, specializing in the design and construction of energy-efficient single-family homes. With a commitment to innovative building practices and sustainable living solutions, Meritage targets strategic markets across the country, catering to a diverse range of customers. The company differentiates itself through its focus on quality craftsmanship and modern home features, making it well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for homeownership in a competitive housing landscape. Through its robust portfolio and experienced management team, Meritage aims to deliver substantial long-term value to its shareholders.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.73% per annum.
- MTH price at the close of October 16, 2025 was $69.79 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.60 (15.94%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 49.68% per annum.
- MTH price at the close of October 16, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.72 (2.41%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MTH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 11, 2024
End date: June 30, 2025
a = 6.5080
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0592
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0592) – 1
= 26.73%
July 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y936)
= Exp(a + b × X936 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,361 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5080 + -0.0014 × 1,361 + 2 × 0.0592)
= Exp(4.7385)
= $114.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y936)
= Exp(a + b × X936 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,361 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5080 + -0.0014 × 1,361 – 2 × 0.0592)
= Exp(4.5016)
= $90.16
June 30, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5080 + -0.0014 × 1,715 + 2 × 0.0592)
= Exp(4.2474)
= $69.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,715 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5080 + -0.0014 × 1,715 – 2 × 0.0592)
= Exp(4.0105)
= $55.17
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.73% per annum.
- MTH price at the close of October 16, 2025 was $69.79 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.60 (15.94%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 3, 2025
End date: October 3, 2025
a = 2.3442
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0443
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 49.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0443) – 1
= 19.40%
April 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,119)
= Exp(a + b × X1,119 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,627 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3442 + 0.0011 × 1,627 + 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(4.2306)
= $68.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,119)
= Exp(a + b × X1,119 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,627 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3442 + 0.0011 × 1,627 – 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(4.0533)
= $57.59
October 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3442 + 0.0011 × 1,810 + 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(4.4328)
= $84.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3442 + 0.0011 × 1,810 – 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(4.2555)
= $70.49
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 49.68% per annum.
- MTH price at the close of October 16, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.72 (2.41%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.