Meritage Corporation (MTH)
Meritage Homes Corporation designs and builds single-family homes in the United States. The company is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.68% per annum.
- MTH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $67.69 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 513.21% per annum.
- MTH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MTH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 12, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 7.8085
b = -0.0020
s = 0.0420
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -51.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0420) – 1
= 18.30%
September 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,100)
= Exp(a + b × X1,100 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,597 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8085 + -0.0020 × 1,597 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.7099)
= $111.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,100)
= Exp(a + b × X1,100 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,597 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8085 + -0.0020 × 1,597 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.5418)
= $93.86
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8085 + -0.0020 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.2555)
= $70.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8085 + -0.0020 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.0874)
= $59.59
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.68% per annum.
- MTH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $67.69 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 10, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025
a = -4.8365
b = 0.0050
s = 0.0187
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0050) – 1
= 513.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0187) – 1
= 7.75%
April 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.8365 + 0.0050 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(4.1790)
= $65.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.8365 + 0.0050 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(4.1044)
= $60.61
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.8365 + 0.0050 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(4.2685)
= $71.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.8365 + 0.0050 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(4.1938)
= $66.28
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 513.21% per annum.
- MTH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.