Cavco Industries Inc (CVCO)
Cavco Industries, Inc. designs, produces and retails manufactured homes primarily in the United States. The company is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 86.85% per annum.
- CVCO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $402.11 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $190.59 (32.16%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 33.38% per annum.
- CVCO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CVCO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 31, 2022
End date: May 18, 2023
a = 3.3637
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0532
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 86.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0532) – 1
= 23.74%
August 31, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y781)
= Exp(a + b × X781 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,132 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3637 + 0.0017 × 1,132 + 2 × 0.0532)
= Exp(5.4090)
= $223.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y781)
= Exp(a + b × X781 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,132 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3637 + 0.0017 × 1,132 – 2 × 0.0532)
= Exp(5.1960)
= $180.55
May 18, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y960)
= Exp(a + b × X960 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,392 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3637 + 0.0017 × 1,392 + 2 × 0.0532)
= Exp(5.8543)
= $348.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y960)
= Exp(a + b × X960 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,392 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3637 + 0.0017 × 1,392 – 2 × 0.0532)
= Exp(5.6413)
= $281.84
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 86.85% per annum.
- CVCO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $402.11 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $190.59 (32.16%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 31, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.5024
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0869
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.38%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0869) – 1
= 41.54%
August 31, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y781)
= Exp(a + b × X781 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,132 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5024 + 0.0008 × 1,132 + 2 × 0.0869)
= Exp(5.5695)
= $262.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y781)
= Exp(a + b × X781 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,132 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5024 + 0.0008 × 1,132 – 2 × 0.0869)
= Exp(5.2221)
= $185.32
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5024 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0869)
= Exp(6.1172)
= $453.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5024 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0869)
= Exp(5.7698)
= $320.48
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 33.38% per annum.
- CVCO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.