PulteGroup Inc (PHM)
PulteGroup, Inc. (previously known as Pulte Homes) is a home construction company based in Atlanta, Georgia, United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 219.14% per annum.
- PHM price at the close of September 29, 2025 was $133.14 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.27 (2.40%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 73.22% per annum.
- PHM price at the close of September 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.17 (1.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PHM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 21, 2025
End date: September 18, 2025
a = -0.8332
b = 0.0032
s = 0.0267
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0032) – 1
= 219.14%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0267) – 1
= 11.26%
May 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8332 + 0.0032 × 1,694 + 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(4.6058)
= $100.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8332 + 0.0032 × 1,694 – 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(4.4992)
= $89.94
September 18, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8332 + 0.0032 × 1,814 + 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(4.9874)
= $146.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8332 + 0.0032 × 1,814 – 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(4.8807)
= $131.72
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 219.14% per annum.
- PHM price at the close of September 29, 2025 was $133.14 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.27 (2.40%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 4, 2025
End date: September 26, 2025
a = 11.4400
b = -0.0036
s = 0.0116
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0036) – 1
= -73.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0116) – 1
= 4.76%
September 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4400 + -0.0036 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.0116)
= Exp(4.9652)
= $143.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4400 + -0.0036 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.0116)
= Exp(4.9187)
= $136.83
September 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4400 + -0.0036 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0116)
= Exp(4.8858)
= $132.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4400 + -0.0036 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0116)
= Exp(4.8393)
= $126.38
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 73.22% per annum.
- PHM price at the close of September 29, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.17 (1.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.