Stock Price Trends

PulteGroup Inc (PHM)

PulteGroup, Inc. (previously known as Pulte Homes) is a home construction company based in Atlanta, Georgia, United States.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 50.17% per annum.
  • PHM price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $102.42 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.51 (0.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 35.94% per annum.
  • PHM price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PHM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 13, 2024
End date: April 23, 2025

a = 8.0262

b = -0.0019

s = 0.0404

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0019) – 1
= -50.17%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0404) – 1
= 17.56%

September 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,101)
= Exp(a + b × X1,101 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,598 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0262 + -0.0019 × 1,598 + 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(5.0573)
= $157.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,101)
= Exp(a + b × X1,101 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,598 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0262 + -0.0019 × 1,598 – 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(4.8955)
= $133.69

April 23, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0262 + -0.0019 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(4.6336)
= $102.88

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0262 + -0.0019 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(4.4719)
= $87.52

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 50.17% per annum.
  • PHM price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $102.42 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.51 (0.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 13, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 6.8092

b = -0.0012

s = 0.0361

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.94%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0361) – 1
= 15.56%

December 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,689 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8092 + -0.0012 × 1,689 + 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(4.8207)
= $124.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,689 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8092 + -0.0012 × 1,689 – 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(4.6761)
= $107.35

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8092 + -0.0012 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(4.6547)
= $105.08

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8092 + -0.0012 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(4.5102)
= $90.94

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 35.94% per annum.
  • PHM price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.