Topbuild Corp (BLD)
TopBuild Corp. The company is headquartered in Daytona Beach, Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 482.07% per annum.
- BLD price at the close of September 12, 2025 was $417.37 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $30.46 (6.80%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 25.96% per annum.
- BLD price at the close of September 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BLD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 19, 2025
End date: August 28, 2025
a = -2.6304
b = 0.0048
s = 0.0337
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0048) – 1
= 482.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0337) – 1
= 14.45%
May 19, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,175)
= Exp(a + b × X1,175 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,708 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.6304 + 0.0048 × 1,708 + 2 × 0.0337)
= Exp(5.6796)
= $292.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,175)
= Exp(a + b × X1,175 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,708 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.6304 + 0.0048 × 1,708 – 2 × 0.0337)
= Exp(5.5446)
= $255.86
August 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.6304 + 0.0048 × 1,809 + 2 × 0.0337)
= Exp(6.1670)
= $476.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.6304 + 0.0048 × 1,809 – 2 × 0.0337)
= Exp(6.0320)
= $416.56
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 482.07% per annum.
- BLD price at the close of September 12, 2025 was $417.37 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $30.46 (6.80%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 12, 2025
End date: September 12, 2025
a = 7.5452
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0157
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -25.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0157) – 1
= 6.50%
August 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5452 + -0.0008 × 1,793 + 2 × 0.0157)
= Exp(6.1005)
= $446.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5452 + -0.0008 × 1,793 – 2 × 0.0157)
= Exp(6.0375)
= $418.85
September 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5452 + -0.0008 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0157)
= Exp(6.0750)
= $434.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5452 + -0.0008 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0157)
= Exp(6.0120)
= $408.30
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 25.96% per annum.
- BLD price at the close of September 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.