Topbuild Corp (BLD)
TopBuild Corp. The company is headquartered in Daytona Beach, Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.61% per annum.
- BLD price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $296.65 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 43.31% per annum.
- BLD price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BLD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 6, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 7.4023
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0656
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0656) – 1
= 29.98%
March 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y969)
= Exp(a + b × X969 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,407 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4023 + -0.0009 × 1,407 + 2 × 0.0656)
= Exp(6.2343)
= $509.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y969)
= Exp(a + b × X969 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,407 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4023 + -0.0009 × 1,407 – 2 × 0.0656)
= Exp(5.9721)
= $392.32
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4023 + -0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0656)
= Exp(5.8483)
= $346.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4023 + -0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0656)
= Exp(5.5861)
= $266.70
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.61% per annum.
- BLD price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $296.65 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 16, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 8.4899
b = -0.0016
s = 0.0476
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -43.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0476) – 1
= 20.96%
September 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4899 + -0.0016 × 1,601 + 2 × 0.0476)
= Exp(6.0952)
= $443.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4899 + -0.0016 × 1,601 – 2 × 0.0476)
= Exp(5.9049)
= $366.83
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4899 + -0.0016 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0476)
= Exp(5.7469)
= $313.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4899 + -0.0016 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0476)
= Exp(5.5565)
= $258.92
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 43.31% per annum.
- BLD price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.