Stock Price Trends

Topbuild Corp (BLD)

TopBuild Corp. The company is headquartered in Daytona Beach, Florida.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.61% per annum.
  • BLD price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $296.65 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 43.31% per annum.
  • BLD price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BLD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 6, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 7.4023

b = -0.0009

s = 0.0656

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.61%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0656) – 1
= 29.98%

March 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y969)
= Exp(a + b × X969 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,407 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4023 + -0.0009 × 1,407 + 2 × 0.0656)
= Exp(6.2343)
= $509.94

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y969)
= Exp(a + b × X969 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,407 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4023 + -0.0009 × 1,407 – 2 × 0.0656)
= Exp(5.9721)
= $392.32

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4023 + -0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0656)
= Exp(5.8483)
= $346.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4023 + -0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0656)
= Exp(5.5861)
= $266.70

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.61% per annum.
  • BLD price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $296.65 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 16, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 8.4899

b = -0.0016

s = 0.0476

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -43.31%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0476) – 1
= 20.96%

September 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4899 + -0.0016 × 1,601 + 2 × 0.0476)
= Exp(6.0952)
= $443.73

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4899 + -0.0016 × 1,601 – 2 × 0.0476)
= Exp(5.9049)
= $366.83

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4899 + -0.0016 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0476)
= Exp(5.7469)
= $313.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4899 + -0.0016 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0476)
= Exp(5.5565)
= $258.92

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 43.31% per annum.
  • BLD price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.