KB Home (KBH)
KB Home is a home construction company in the United States. The company is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 54.94% per annum.
- KBH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $53.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 452.47% per annum.
- KBH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KBH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 7.9708
b = -0.0022
s = 0.0448
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -54.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0448) – 1
= 19.62%
September 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,101)
= Exp(a + b × X1,101 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,598 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9708 + -0.0022 × 1,598 + 2 × 0.0448)
= Exp(4.5699)
= $96.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,101)
= Exp(a + b × X1,101 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,598 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9708 + -0.0022 × 1,598 – 2 × 0.0448)
= Exp(4.3907)
= $80.70
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9708 + -0.0022 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0448)
= Exp(4.0740)
= $58.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9708 + -0.0022 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0448)
= Exp(3.8948)
= $49.15
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 54.94% per annum.
- KBH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $53.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 11, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025
a = -4.5511
b = 0.0047
s = 0.0160
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0047) – 1
= 452.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0160) – 1
= 6.62%
April 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.5511 + 0.0047 × 1,808 + 2 × 0.0160)
= Exp(3.9475)
= $51.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.5511 + 0.0047 × 1,808 – 2 × 0.0160)
= Exp(3.8834)
= $48.59
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.5511 + 0.0047 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0160)
= Exp(4.0271)
= $56.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.5511 + 0.0047 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0160)
= Exp(3.9630)
= $52.61
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 452.47% per annum.
- KBH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.