TRI Pointe Homes Inc (TPH)
Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. is dedicated to the design, construction and sale of attached and semi-detached single-family homes in the United States. The company is headquartered in Irvine, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 52.51% per annum.
- TPH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $30.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 243.71% per annum.
- TPH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TPH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 7.1069
b = -0.0020
s = 0.0420
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -52.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0420) – 1
= 18.31%
September 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,101)
= Exp(a + b × X1,101 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,598 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1069 + -0.0020 × 1,598 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(3.9312)
= $50.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,101)
= Exp(a + b × X1,101 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,598 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1069 + -0.0020 × 1,598 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(3.7630)
= $43.08
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1069 + -0.0020 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(3.4681)
= $32.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1069 + -0.0020 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(3.3000)
= $27.11
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 52.51% per annum.
- TPH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $30.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 10, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025
a = -2.7449
b = 0.0034
s = 0.0149
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0034) – 1
= 243.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0149) – 1
= 6.14%
April 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.7449 + 0.0034 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.0149)
= Exp(3.3971)
= $29.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.7449 + 0.0034 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.0149)
= Exp(3.3375)
= $28.15
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.7449 + 0.0034 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0149)
= Exp(3.4580)
= $31.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.7449 + 0.0034 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0149)
= Exp(3.3984)
= $29.92
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 243.71% per annum.
- TPH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.