TRI Pointe Homes Inc (TPH)
Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. is dedicated to the design, construction and sale of attached and semi-detached single-family homes in the United States. The company is headquartered in Irvine, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.26% per annum.
- TPH price at the close of August 13, 2025 was $35.63 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.30 (17.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 39.33% per annum.
- TPH price at the close of August 13, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TPH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 15, 2024
End date: June 26, 2025
a = 5.8737
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0573
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0573) – 1
= 25.73%
July 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y983)
= Exp(a + b × X983 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,431 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8737 + -0.0014 × 1,431 + 2 × 0.0573)
= Exp(3.9682)
= $52.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y983)
= Exp(a + b × X983 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,431 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8737 + -0.0014 × 1,431 – 2 × 0.0573)
= Exp(3.7392)
= $42.07
June 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8737 + -0.0014 × 1,777 + 2 × 0.0573)
= Exp(3.4798)
= $32.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8737 + -0.0014 × 1,777 – 2 × 0.0573)
= Exp(3.2508)
= $25.81
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.26% per annum.
- TPH price at the close of August 13, 2025 was $35.63 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.30 (17.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 7, 2025
End date: August 13, 2025
a = 1.8476
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0346
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.33%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0346) – 1
= 14.84%
April 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,166)
= Exp(a + b × X1,166 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,697 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8476 + 0.0009 × 1,697 + 2 × 0.0346)
= Exp(3.4587)
= $31.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,166)
= Exp(a + b × X1,166 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,697 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8476 + 0.0009 × 1,697 – 2 × 0.0346)
= Exp(3.3203)
= $27.67
August 13, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8476 + 0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0346)
= Exp(3.5750)
= $35.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8476 + 0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0346)
= Exp(3.4366)
= $31.08
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 39.33% per annum.
- TPH price at the close of August 13, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.