TRI Pointe Homes Inc (TPH)
Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. is dedicated to the design, construction and sale of attached and semi-detached single-family homes in the United States. The company is headquartered in Irvine, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.81% per annum.
- TPH price at the close of September 29, 2025 was $33.99 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.41 (18.92%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 52.23% per annum.
- TPH price at the close of September 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TPH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 11, 2024
End date: June 26, 2025
a = 5.7738
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0586
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0586) – 1
= 26.41%
July 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y949)
= Exp(a + b × X949 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,380 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7738 + -0.0014 × 1,380 + 2 × 0.0586)
= Exp(3.9717)
= $53.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y949)
= Exp(a + b × X949 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,380 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7738 + -0.0014 × 1,380 – 2 × 0.0586)
= Exp(3.7373)
= $41.99
June 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7738 + -0.0014 × 1,730 + 2 × 0.0586)
= Exp(3.4849)
= $32.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,730 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7738 + -0.0014 × 1,730 – 2 × 0.0586)
= Exp(3.2505)
= $25.80
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.81% per annum.
- TPH price at the close of September 29, 2025 was $33.99 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.41 (18.92%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 7, 2025
End date: September 19, 2025
a = 1.4790
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0343
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 52.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0343) – 1
= 14.71%
April 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,134)
= Exp(a + b × X1,134 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,650 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4790 + 0.0012 × 1,650 + 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(3.4471)
= $31.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,134)
= Exp(a + b × X1,134 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,650 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4790 + 0.0012 × 1,650 – 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(3.3099)
= $27.38
September 19, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4790 + 0.0012 × 1,815 + 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(3.6371)
= $37.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,815 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4790 + 0.0012 × 1,815 – 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(3.4999)
= $33.11
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 52.23% per annum.
- TPH price at the close of September 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.