Taylor Morn Home (TMHC)
Taylor Morrison Home Corporation, is a public housing builder in the United States. The company is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 96.31% per annum.
- TMHC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $65.52 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $14.85 (18.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 42.08% per annum.
- TMHC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TMHC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 10, 2022
End date: September 1, 2023
a = 1.1570
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0724
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 96.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0724) – 1
= 33.60%
June 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y725)
= Exp(a + b × X725 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,050 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1570 + 0.0018 × 1,050 + 2 × 0.0724)
= Exp(3.2422)
= $25.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y725)
= Exp(a + b × X725 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,050 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1570 + 0.0018 × 1,050 – 2 × 0.0724)
= Exp(2.9526)
= $19.15
September 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,033)
= Exp(a + b × X1,033 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,498 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1570 + 0.0018 × 1,498 + 2 × 0.0724)
= Exp(4.0701)
= $58.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,033)
= Exp(a + b × X1,033 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,498 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1570 + 0.0018 × 1,498 – 2 × 0.0724)
= Exp(3.7805)
= $43.84
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 96.31% per annum.
- TMHC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $65.52 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $14.85 (18.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 11, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.3665
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0797
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 42.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0797) – 1
= 37.55%
January 11, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y872)
= Exp(a + b × X872 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,265 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3665 + 0.0010 × 1,265 + 2 × 0.0797)
= Exp(3.7431)
= $42.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y872)
= Exp(a + b × X872 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,265 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3665 + 0.0010 × 1,265 – 2 × 0.0797)
= Exp(3.4242)
= $30.70
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3665 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0797)
= Exp(4.2829)
= $72.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3665 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0797)
= Exp(3.9640)
= $52.67
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 42.08% per annum.
- TMHC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.