Taylor Morn Home (TMHC)
Taylor Morrison Home Corporation, is a public housing builder in the United States. The company is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.31% per annum.
- TMHC price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $57.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 45.15% per annum.
- TMHC price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TMHC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 5.8591
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0420
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -30.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0420) – 1
= 18.27%
September 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,101)
= Exp(a + b × X1,101 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,598 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8591 + -0.0010 × 1,598 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.3619)
= $78.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,101)
= Exp(a + b × X1,101 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,598 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8591 + -0.0010 × 1,598 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.1941)
= $66.29
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8591 + -0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.1373)
= $62.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8591 + -0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(3.9695)
= $52.96
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.31% per annum.
- TMHC price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $57.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 15, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 7.0282
b = -0.0016
s = 0.0235
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -45.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0235) – 1
= 9.86%
January 15, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,722 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0282 + -0.0016 × 1,722 + 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(4.2418)
= $69.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,722 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0282 + -0.0016 × 1,722 – 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(4.1478)
= $63.29
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0282 + -0.0016 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(4.0723)
= $58.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0282 + -0.0016 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0235)
= Exp(3.9783)
= $53.42
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 45.15% per annum.
- TMHC price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.