Dream Finders Homes Inc (DFH)
Dream Finders Homes, Inc. is a holding company of Dream Finders Holdings LLC engaged in the home construction business in the United States. The company is headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 55.15% per annum.
- DFH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $23.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.16% per annum.
- DFH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DFH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 23, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 6.4485
b = -0.0022
s = 0.0857
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -55.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0857) – 1
= 40.86%
August 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y903)
= Exp(a + b × X903 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,310 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4485 + -0.0022 × 1,310 + 2 × 0.0857)
= Exp(3.7421)
= $42.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y903)
= Exp(a + b × X903 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,310 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4485 + -0.0022 × 1,310 – 2 × 0.0857)
= Exp(3.3995)
= $29.95
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,071)
= Exp(a + b × X1,071 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,558 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4485 + -0.0022 × 1,558 + 2 × 0.0857)
= Exp(3.1973)
= $24.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,071)
= Exp(a + b × X1,071 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,558 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4485 + -0.0022 × 1,558 – 2 × 0.0857)
= Exp(2.8547)
= $17.37
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 55.15% per annum.
- DFH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $23.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 19, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 3.6686
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0524
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0524) – 1
= 23.33%
December 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y985)
= Exp(a + b × X985 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,428 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6686 + -0.0004 × 1,428 + 2 × 0.0524)
= Exp(3.2663)
= $26.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y985)
= Exp(a + b × X985 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,428 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6686 + -0.0004 × 1,428 – 2 × 0.0524)
= Exp(3.0566)
= $21.25
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,071)
= Exp(a + b × X1,071 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,558 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6686 + -0.0004 × 1,558 + 2 × 0.0524)
= Exp(3.2201)
= $25.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,071)
= Exp(a + b × X1,071 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,558 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6686 + -0.0004 × 1,558 – 2 × 0.0524)
= Exp(3.0104)
= $20.30
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.16% per annum.
- DFH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.