Stock Price Trends

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)

at toll brothers, we build more than homes. we build communities. for over 40 years, we’ve been building communities in picturesque settings where luxury meets convenience, and where neighbors become lifelong friends. toll brothers is there – in the smallest finishing details of your home, in the setting that makes your home part of a neighborhood, and in the neighborhoods that create your community. this page is meant to provide our followers with all of the latest news about toll brothers and industry related news, and show you what it is like to work for america's luxury home builder. this page aims to be an honest, friendly, and trustworthy place for people to read the latest toll brothers news and to engage respectfully with fellow toll brothers followers. we encourage you to leave comments, as we want this to be a forum for good conversation, however, we reserve the right to review all comments and posts and remove any that are inappropriate, offensive, or spam. more speci

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

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Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 103.28% per annum.
  • TOL price at the close of February 16, 2024 was $102.18 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.33 (2.23%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 24.32% per annum.
  • TOL price at the close of February 16, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.60 (0.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TOL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

August 26, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

September 14, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 103.28% per annum.
  • TOL price at the close of February 16, 2024 was $102.18 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.33 (2.23%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

December 14, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

February 9, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 24.32% per annum.
  • TOL price at the close of February 16, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.60 (0.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.