Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)
Toll Brothers, Inc. designs, builds, markets, sells and manages the financing of a variety of detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States. The company is headquartered in Horsham, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 89.95% per annum.
- TOL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $132.65 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 10.32% per annum.
- TOL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $5.23 (4.11%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TOL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 22, 2022
End date: June 18, 2024
a = 1.7237
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0721
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 89.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0721) – 1
= 33.42%
August 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y774)
= Exp(a + b × X774 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,123 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7237 + 0.0018 × 1,123 + 2 × 0.0721)
= Exp(3.8418)
= $46.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y774)
= Exp(a + b × X774 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,123 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7237 + 0.0018 × 1,123 – 2 × 0.0721)
= Exp(3.5535)
= $34.93
June 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7237 + 0.0018 × 1,789 + 2 × 0.0721)
= Exp(5.0124)
= $150.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7237 + 0.0018 × 1,789 – 2 × 0.0721)
= Exp(4.7241)
= $112.63
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 89.95% per annum.
- TOL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $132.65 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 29, 2024
End date: July 15, 2024
a = 5.3093
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0415
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0415) – 1
= 18.07%
February 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,679 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3093 + -0.0003 × 1,679 + 2 × 0.0415)
= Exp(4.8913)
= $133.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,679 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3093 + -0.0003 × 1,679 – 2 × 0.0415)
= Exp(4.7253)
= $112.76
July 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3093 + -0.0003 × 1,816 + 2 × 0.0415)
= Exp(4.8505)
= $127.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3093 + -0.0003 × 1,816 – 2 × 0.0415)
= Exp(4.6844)
= $108.24
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 10.32% per annum.
- TOL price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $5.23 (4.11%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.