Stock Price Trends

Ingersoll Rand Inc (IR)

Ingersoll Rand Inc., founded in 1859, is an American worldwide provider of industrial equipment, technologies and related parts and services to a broad and diverse customer base through a family of brands.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.86% per annum.
  • IR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $96.94 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.82% per annum.
  • IR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 13, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024

a = 2.6455

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0603

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 46.86%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0603) – 1
= 27.28%

June 13, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y726)
= Exp(a + b × X726 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,053 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6455 + 0.0011 × 1,053 + 2 × 0.0603)
= Exp(3.8749)
= $48.18

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y726)
= Exp(a + b × X726 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,053 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6455 + 0.0011 × 1,053 – 2 × 0.0603)
= Exp(3.6336)
= $37.85

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6455 + 0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0603)
= Exp(4.6888)
= $108.72

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6455 + 0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0603)
= Exp(4.4475)
= $85.42

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.86% per annum.
  • IR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $96.94 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 15, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024

a = 4.0333

b = 0.0003

s = 0.0267

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.82%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0267) – 1
= 11.28%

February 15, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,665 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0333 + 0.0003 × 1,665 + 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(4.5555)
= $95.15

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,665 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0333 + 0.0003 × 1,665 – 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(4.4486)
= $85.51

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0333 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(4.6008)
= $99.56

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0333 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(4.4939)
= $89.47

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.82% per annum.
  • IR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.