WW Grainger Inc (GWW)
W. W. Grainger, Inc. is an American Fortune 500 industrial supply company founded in 1927 in Chicago by William W. (Bill) Grainger.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 24.22% per annum.
- GWW price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $954.15 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $20.40 (2.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 57.28% per annum.
- GWW price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GWW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 22, 2024
End date: July 12, 2024
a = 8.1791
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0239
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -24.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0239) – 1
= 10.05%
February 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,151)
= Exp(a + b × X1,151 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,672 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1791 + -0.0008 × 1,672 + 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(6.9562)
= $1,049.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,151)
= Exp(a + b × X1,151 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,672 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1791 + -0.0008 × 1,672 – 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(6.8605)
= $953.80
July 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1791 + -0.0008 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(6.8491)
= $943.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1791 + -0.0008 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(6.7533)
= $856.88
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 24.22% per annum.
- GWW price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $954.15 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $20.40 (2.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 3, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.5892
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0177
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 57.28%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0177) – 1
= 7.34%
June 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5892 + 0.0012 × 1,774 + 2 × 0.0177)
= Exp(6.8256)
= $921.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5892 + 0.0012 × 1,774 – 2 × 0.0177)
= Exp(6.7547)
= $858.11
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5892 + 0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0177)
= Exp(6.8901)
= $982.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5892 + 0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0177)
= Exp(6.8192)
= $915.30
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 57.28% per annum.
- GWW price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.