Illinois Tool Works Inc (ITW)
Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) is a diversified industrial manufacturer based in the United States, recognized for its innovative engineered fasteners and components, as well as equipment and consumable systems across various sectors. With a robust portfolio that includes specialty products tailored for diverse industries, ITW leverages its strong market position to drive technological advancements and operational efficiencies. The company is committed to delivering sustainable solutions, emphasizing quality and customer satisfaction while generating consistent financial performance and shareholder value. ITW's focus on strategic acquisitions and organic growth initiatives positions it well for future expansion in an increasingly competitive global marketplace.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 17.91% per annum.
- ITW price at the close of February 13, 2026 was $299.60 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $6.47 (2.11%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.74% per annum.
- ITW price at the close of February 13, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $15.58 (5.48%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ITW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 1, 2022
End date: April 24, 2024
a = 5.0080
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0535
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 17.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0535) – 1
= 23.84%
March 1, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y262)
= Exp(a + b × X262 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 378 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0080 + 0.0005 × 378 + 2 × 0.0535)
= Exp(5.2855)
= $197.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y262)
= Exp(a + b × X262 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 378 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0080 + 0.0005 × 378 – 2 × 0.0535)
= Exp(5.0717)
= $159.44
April 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y802)
= Exp(a + b × X802 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,163 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0080 + 0.0005 × 1,163 + 2 × 0.0535)
= Exp(5.6398)
= $281.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y802)
= Exp(a + b × X802 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,163 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0080 + 0.0005 × 1,163 – 2 × 0.0535)
= Exp(5.4260)
= $227.23
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 17.91% per annum.
- ITW price at the close of February 13, 2026 was $299.60 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $6.47 (2.11%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 10, 2022
End date: February 2, 2026
a = 5.2834
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0435
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 5.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0435) – 1
= 18.99%
November 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y439)
= Exp(a + b × X439 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 632 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2834 + 0.0002 × 632 + 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(5.4669)
= $236.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y439)
= Exp(a + b × X439 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 632 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2834 + 0.0002 × 632 – 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(5.2931)
= $198.95
February 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2834 + 0.0002 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(5.6474)
= $283.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2834 + 0.0002 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(5.4735)
= $238.30
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.74% per annum.
- ITW price at the close of February 13, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $15.58 (5.48%).