Illinois Tool Works Inc (ITW)
Illinois Tool Works Inc. or ITW is an American company that produces engineered fasteners and components, equipment and consumable systems, and specialty products.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.00% per annum.
- ITW price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $243.83 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 23.18% per annum.
- ITW price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ITW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 14, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 6.1765
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0258
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0258) – 1
= 10.88%
December 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,602 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1765 + -0.0004 × 1,602 + 2 × 0.0258)
= Exp(5.6171)
= $275.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,602 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1765 + -0.0004 × 1,602 – 2 × 0.0258)
= Exp(5.5138)
= $248.09
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1765 + -0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0258)
= Exp(5.5316)
= $252.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1765 + -0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0258)
= Exp(5.4284)
= $227.78
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.00% per annum.
- ITW price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $243.83 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 27, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 6.7788
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0239
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0239) – 1
= 10.05%
February 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,154)
= Exp(a + b × X1,154 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,677 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7788 + -0.0007 × 1,677 + 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(5.6152)
= $274.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,154)
= Exp(a + b × X1,154 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,677 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7788 + -0.0007 × 1,677 – 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(5.5195)
= $249.50
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7788 + -0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(5.5076)
= $246.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7788 + -0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(5.4118)
= $224.04
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 23.18% per annum.
- ITW price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.