Illinois Tool Works Inc (ITW)
Illinois Tool Works Inc. or ITW is an American company that produces engineered fasteners and components, equipment and consumable systems, and specialty products.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 57.64% per annum.
- ITW price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $247.40 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.69 (0.69%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 38.95% per annum.
- ITW price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ITW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 20, 2024
End date: May 6, 2024
a = 9.7820
b = -0.0024
s = 0.0096
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0024) – 1
= -57.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0096) – 1
= 3.90%
March 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.7820 + -0.0024 × 1,777 + 2 × 0.0096)
= Exp(5.6195)
= $275.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.7820 + -0.0024 × 1,777 – 2 × 0.0096)
= Exp(5.5812)
= $265.39
May 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.7820 + -0.0024 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0096)
= Exp(5.5089)
= $246.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.7820 + -0.0024 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0096)
= Exp(5.4706)
= $237.60
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 57.64% per annum.
- ITW price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $247.40 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.69 (0.69%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 12, 2024
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 7.9663
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0093
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -38.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0093) – 1
= 3.80%
April 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9663 + -0.0014 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.0093)
= Exp(5.5513)
= $257.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9663 + -0.0014 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.0093)
= Exp(5.5140)
= $248.14
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9663 + -0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0093)
= Exp(5.5161)
= $248.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9663 + -0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0093)
= Exp(5.4788)
= $239.57
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 38.95% per annum.
- ITW price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.