Xylem Inc (XYL)
Xylem Inc. is a large American water technology provider, in public utility, residential, commercial, agricultural and industrial settings.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 93.83% per annum.
- XYL price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $140.84 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $6.85 (4.64%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.96% per annum.
- XYL price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.96 (2.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of XYL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 7, 2023
End date: June 13, 2024
a = 1.7592
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0357
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 93.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0357) – 1
= 15.33%
September 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,035)
= Exp(a + b × X1,035 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,501 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7592 + 0.0018 × 1,501 + 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(4.5521)
= $94.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,035)
= Exp(a + b × X1,035 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,501 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7592 + 0.0018 × 1,501 – 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(4.4095)
= $82.23
June 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,228)
= Exp(a + b × X1,228 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,781 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7592 + 0.0018 × 1,781 + 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(5.0598)
= $157.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,228)
= Exp(a + b × X1,228 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,781 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7592 + 0.0018 × 1,781 – 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(4.9172)
= $136.62
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 93.83% per annum.
- XYL price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $140.84 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $6.85 (4.64%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 6, 2024
End date: July 15, 2024
a = 6.4639
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0164
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -26.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0164) – 1
= 6.76%
May 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4639 + -0.0009 × 1,743 + 2 × 0.0164)
= Exp(4.9961)
= $147.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4639 + -0.0009 × 1,743 – 2 × 0.0164)
= Exp(4.9307)
= $138.47
July 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4639 + -0.0009 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.0164)
= Exp(4.9359)
= $139.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4639 + -0.0009 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.0164)
= Exp(4.8704)
= $130.37
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.96% per annum.
- XYL price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.96 (2.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.