Mueller Industries Inc (MLI)
Mueller Industries, Inc. manufactures and sells copper, brass, aluminum, and plastic products in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, South Korea, the Middle East, China, and Mexico. The company is headquartered in Collierville, Tennessee.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 109.66% per annum.
- MLI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $68.20 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 61.10% per annum.
- MLI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.14 (4.83%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MLI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 5, 2023
End date: May 31, 2024
a = 0.5048
b = 0.0020
s = 0.0337
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 109.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0337) – 1
= 14.43%
September 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,034)
= Exp(a + b × X1,034 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,502 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5048 + 0.0020 × 1,502 + 2 × 0.0337)
= Exp(3.6186)
= $37.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,034)
= Exp(a + b × X1,034 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,502 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5048 + 0.0020 × 1,502 – 2 × 0.0337)
= Exp(3.4839)
= $32.59
May 31, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5048 + 0.0020 × 1,771 + 2 × 0.0337)
= Exp(4.1642)
= $64.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5048 + 0.0020 × 1,771 – 2 × 0.0337)
= Exp(4.0295)
= $56.23
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 109.66% per annum.
- MLI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $68.20 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 14, 2023
End date: July 15, 2024
a = 1.7224
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0336
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 61.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0336) – 1
= 14.40%
December 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,602 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7224 + 0.0013 × 1,602 + 2 × 0.0336)
= Exp(3.8826)
= $48.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,602 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7224 + 0.0013 × 1,602 – 2 × 0.0336)
= Exp(3.7481)
= $42.44
July 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7224 + 0.0013 × 1,816 + 2 × 0.0336)
= Exp(4.1622)
= $64.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7224 + 0.0013 × 1,816 – 2 × 0.0336)
= Exp(4.0277)
= $56.13
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 61.10% per annum.
- MLI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.14 (4.83%).