Middleby Corp (MIDD)
Middleby Corporation designs, manufactures, markets, distributes and services a variety of residential kitchen, food processing and foodservice equipment in the United States, Canada, Asia, Europe, the Middle East and Latin America. The company is headquartered in Elgin, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.33% per annum.
- MIDD price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $131.71 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 48.19% per annum.
- MIDD price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.46 (1.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MIDD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 1, 2021
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 5.3369
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0916
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.33%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0916) – 1
= 44.25%
March 1, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y400)
= Exp(a + b × X400 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 581 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3369 + -0.0003 × 581 + 2 × 0.0916)
= Exp(5.3641)
= $213.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y400)
= Exp(a + b × X400 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 581 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3369 + -0.0003 × 581 – 2 × 0.0916)
= Exp(4.9977)
= $148.08
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3369 + -0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0916)
= Exp(5.0304)
= $153.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3369 + -0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0916)
= Exp(4.6640)
= $106.06
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.33% per annum.
- MIDD price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $131.71 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 23, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 8.0729
b = -0.0018
s = 0.0376
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1
= -48.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0376) – 1
= 16.24%
February 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,151)
= Exp(a + b × X1,151 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,670 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0729 + -0.0018 × 1,670 + 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(5.1392)
= $170.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,151)
= Exp(a + b × X1,151 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,670 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0729 + -0.0018 × 1,670 – 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(4.9887)
= $146.75
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0729 + -0.0018 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(4.8618)
= $129.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0729 + -0.0018 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(4.7112)
= $111.19
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 48.19% per annum.
- MIDD price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.46 (1.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.