Stock Price Trends

Parker-Hannifin Corporation (PH)

Parker-Hannifin Corporation, originally Parker Appliance Company, usually referred to as just Parker, is an American corporation specializing in motion and control technologies. Its corporate headquarters are in Mayfield Heights, Ohio, in Greater Cleveland.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 53.41% per annum.
  • PH price at the close of June 18, 2024 was $506.83 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.57% per annum.
  • PH price at the close of June 18, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 13, 2022
End date: June 13, 2024

a = 4.1886

b = 0.0012

s = 0.0616

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 53.41%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0616) – 1
= 27.93%

June 13, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y751)
= Exp(a + b × X751 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,089 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1886 + 0.0012 × 1,089 + 2 × 0.0616)
= Exp(5.5886)
= $267.37

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y751)
= Exp(a + b × X751 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,089 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1886 + 0.0012 × 1,089 – 2 × 0.0616)
= Exp(5.3423)
= $209.00

June 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1886 + 0.0012 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0616)
= Exp(6.4457)
= $630.01

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1886 + 0.0012 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0616)
= Exp(6.1995)
= $492.48

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 53.41% per annum.
  • PH price at the close of June 18, 2024 was $506.83 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 21, 2024
End date: June 18, 2024

a = 7.7991

b = -0.0008

s = 0.0189

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.57%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0189) – 1
= 7.85%

March 21, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7991 + -0.0008 × 1,736 + 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(6.3679)
= $582.85

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,736 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7991 + -0.0008 × 1,736 – 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(6.2924)
= $540.44

June 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7991 + -0.0008 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(6.2926)
= $540.57

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7991 + -0.0008 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0189)
= Exp(6.2171)
= $501.24

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.57% per annum.
  • PH price at the close of June 18, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.