Stanley Black & Decker Inc (SWK)
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc., formerly known as The Stanley Works, is a Fortune 500 American manufacturer of industrial tools and household hardware and provider of security products. Headquartered in the greater Hartford city of New Britain, Connecticut, Stanley Black & Decker is the result of the merger of Stanley Works and Black & Decker on March 12, 2010.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 14.15% per annum.
- SWK price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $89.57 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 19.39% per annum.
- SWK price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.74 (0.84%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SWK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 31, 2022
End date: May 22, 2024
a = 3.8958
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0649
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 14.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0649) – 1
= 29.63%
August 31, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y781)
= Exp(a + b × X781 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,132 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8958 + 0.0004 × 1,132 + 2 × 0.0649)
= Exp(4.4358)
= $84.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y781)
= Exp(a + b × X781 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,132 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8958 + 0.0004 × 1,132 – 2 × 0.0649)
= Exp(4.1763)
= $65.13
May 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,214)
= Exp(a + b × X1,214 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8958 + 0.0004 × 1,762 + 2 × 0.0649)
= Exp(4.6642)
= $106.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,214)
= Exp(a + b × X1,214 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8958 + 0.0004 × 1,762 – 2 × 0.0649)
= Exp(4.4047)
= $81.83
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 14.15% per annum.
- SWK price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $89.57 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 1, 2023
End date: July 11, 2024
a = 5.4951
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0349
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0349) – 1
= 14.97%
December 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,096)
= Exp(a + b × X1,096 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,589 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4951 + -0.0006 × 1,589 + 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(4.6266)
= $102.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,096)
= Exp(a + b × X1,096 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,589 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4951 + -0.0006 × 1,589 – 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(4.4872)
= $88.87
July 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4951 + -0.0006 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(4.4950)
= $89.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4951 + -0.0006 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(4.3555)
= $77.91
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 19.39% per annum.
- SWK price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.74 (0.84%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.