Fortive Corp (FTV)
Fortive is an American diversified industrial technology conglomerate company headquartered in Everett, Washington.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 17.06% per annum.
- FTV price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $69.99 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.92 (5.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 40.81% per annum.
- FTV price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FTV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 4, 2022
End date: May 22, 2024
a = 3.6312
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0582
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 17.06%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0582) – 1
= 26.20%
March 4, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y657)
= Exp(a + b × X657 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 952 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6312 + 0.0004 × 952 + 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(4.1583)
= $63.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y657)
= Exp(a + b × X657 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 952 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6312 + 0.0004 × 952 – 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(3.9256)
= $50.68
May 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,214)
= Exp(a + b × X1,214 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6312 + 0.0004 × 1,762 + 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(4.5079)
= $90.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,214)
= Exp(a + b × X1,214 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6312 + 0.0004 × 1,762 – 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(4.2752)
= $71.89
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 17.06% per annum.
- FTV price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $69.99 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.92 (5.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 14, 2024
End date: July 9, 2024
a = 6.8654
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0223
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0223) – 1
= 9.33%
February 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,146)
= Exp(a + b × X1,146 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,664 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8654 + -0.0014 × 1,664 + 2 × 0.0223)
= Exp(4.5189)
= $91.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,146)
= Exp(a + b × X1,146 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,664 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8654 + -0.0014 × 1,664 – 2 × 0.0223)
= Exp(4.4296)
= $83.90
July 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8654 + -0.0014 × 1,810 + 2 × 0.0223)
= Exp(4.3091)
= $74.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8654 + -0.0014 × 1,810 – 2 × 0.0223)
= Exp(4.2198)
= $68.02
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 40.81% per annum.
- FTV price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.