Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL)
Arch Capital Group Ltd., offers insurance, reinsurance and mortgage products worldwide. The company is headquartered in Pembroke, Bermuda.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.70% per annum.
- ACGL price at the close of February 14, 2025 was $88.20 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.29% per annum.
- ACGL price at the close of February 14, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.37 (0.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ACGL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 23, 2024
End date: February 14, 2025
a = 6.4718
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0323
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -32.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0323) – 1
= 13.78%
August 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,137)
= Exp(a + b × X1,137 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,648 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4718 + -0.0011 × 1,648 + 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(4.7483)
= $115.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,137)
= Exp(a + b × X1,137 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,648 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4718 + -0.0011 × 1,648 – 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(4.6193)
= $101.42
February 14, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4718 + -0.0011 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(4.5585)
= $95.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4718 + -0.0011 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(4.4294)
= $83.88
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.70% per annum.
- ACGL price at the close of February 14, 2025 was $88.20 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 10, 2024
End date: February 14, 2025
a = 4.4627
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0215
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0215) – 1
= 8.99%
December 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4627 + 0.0000 × 1,757 + 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(4.5676)
= $96.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4627 + 0.0000 × 1,757 – 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(4.4815)
= $88.37
February 14, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4627 + 0.0000 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(4.5699)
= $96.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4627 + 0.0000 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(4.4838)
= $88.57
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.29% per annum.
- ACGL price at the close of February 14, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.37 (0.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.