Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL)
Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) is a global insurance and reinsurance provider based in Pembroke, Bermuda, specializing in offering a diverse range of insurance solutions, including property, casualty, and mortgage insurance products. Established to meet the growing risk management needs of clients worldwide, the company leverages its robust underwriting expertise and advanced analytics to drive innovation and operational efficiency. With a strong capital position and a commitment to responsible underwriting, Arch Capital Group aims to deliver sustainable growth and shareholder value, positioning itself as a key player in the global insurance landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
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Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.23% per annum.
- ACGL price at the close of October 31, 2025 was $86.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.66% per annum.
- ACGL price at the close of October 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ACGL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date:
End date:
a =
b =
s =
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=
August 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
October 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.23% per annum.
- ACGL price at the close of October 31, 2025 was $86.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date:
End date:
a =
b =
s =
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=
December 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
October 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.66% per annum.
- ACGL price at the close of October 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.