HCI Group Inc (HCI)
HCI Group, Inc. is engaged in the property and casualty insurance, reinsurance, real estate and information technology businesses in Florida. The company is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 104.49% per annum.
- HCI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $90.06 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $7.20 (7.40%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 61.46% per annum.
- HCI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HCI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 27, 2022
End date: June 12, 2024
a = 1.2343
b = 0.0020
s = 0.1178
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 104.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1178) – 1
= 60.17%
September 27, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y799)
= Exp(a + b × X799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,159 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2343 + 0.0020 × 1,159 + 2 × 0.1178)
= Exp(3.7413)
= $42.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y799)
= Exp(a + b × X799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,159 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2343 + 0.0020 × 1,159 – 2 × 0.1178)
= Exp(3.2702)
= $26.32
June 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,228)
= Exp(a + b × X1,228 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2343 + 0.0020 × 1,783 + 2 × 0.1178)
= Exp(4.9642)
= $143.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,228)
= Exp(a + b × X1,228 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2343 + 0.0020 × 1,783 – 2 × 0.1178)
= Exp(4.4931)
= $89.40
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 104.49% per annum.
- HCI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $90.06 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $7.20 (7.40%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 21, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 9.2238
b = -0.0026
s = 0.0302
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0026) – 1
= -61.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0302) – 1
= 12.82%
March 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,171)
= Exp(a + b × X1,171 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,700 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2238 + -0.0026 × 1,700 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(4.8433)
= $126.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,171)
= Exp(a + b × X1,171 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,700 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2238 + -0.0026 × 1,700 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(4.7227)
= $112.47
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2238 + -0.0026 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(4.5142)
= $91.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2238 + -0.0026 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(4.3935)
= $80.92
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 61.46% per annum.
- HCI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.