Radian Group Inc (RDN)
Radian Group Inc. is a leading provider of mortgage and real estate services in the United States, specializing in mortgage insurance and risk management. Headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Radian leverages its extensive industry expertise to offer innovative solutions aimed at enhancing access to homeownership while managing risk for lenders and investors. With a strong commitment to financial stability and customer service, Radian continues to adapt to changing market dynamics, positioning itself as a trusted partner in the housing finance ecosystem.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.00% per annum.
- RDN price at the close of December 2, 2025 was $35.50 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.79 (11.88%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.15% per annum.
- RDN price at the close of December 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RDN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 9, 2022
End date: December 16, 2024
a = 2.3998
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0649
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0649) – 1
= 29.66%
May 9, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y359)
= Exp(a + b × X359 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 522 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3998 + 0.0008 × 522 + 2 × 0.0649)
= Exp(2.9376)
= $18.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y359)
= Exp(a + b × X359 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 522 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3998 + 0.0008 × 522 – 2 × 0.0649)
= Exp(2.6778)
= $14.55
December 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,014)
= Exp(a + b × X1,014 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,474 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3998 + 0.0008 × 1,474 + 2 × 0.0649)
= Exp(3.6815)
= $39.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,014)
= Exp(a + b × X1,014 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,474 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3998 + 0.0008 × 1,474 – 2 × 0.0649)
= Exp(3.4217)
= $30.62
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.00% per annum.
- RDN price at the close of December 2, 2025 was $35.50 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.79 (11.88%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 11, 2024
End date: December 2, 2025
a = 3.1563
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0464
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0464) – 1
= 20.37%
March 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y820)
= Exp(a + b × X820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,194 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1563 + 0.0002 × 1,194 + 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(3.5055)
= $33.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y820)
= Exp(a + b × X820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,194 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1563 + 0.0002 × 1,194 – 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(3.3201)
= $27.66
December 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1563 + 0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(3.6410)
= $38.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1563 + 0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(3.4556)
= $31.68
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.15% per annum.
- RDN price at the close of December 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.